Jerusalem Drama: Netanyahu Faces the Court – and the President

It is a strange morning in Jerusalem. The temperatures are rising to become a spring heat wave, and the temperatures in the political oven are rising too: On one side of town, the president is now accepting delegations of political parties, who must tell him who — in their view — should get the mandate to form a new coalition. On the other side of town, the man fighting for the mandate — and who is likely to get it — is facing the court for the important part of his trial. Tomorrow the headlines speculating about Netanyahu’s near-term prospects will compete with the headlines describing what witnesses have said about him — with an eye towards his long-term future.

It is a strange morning in Jerusalem. A day with the sound of drama but very little dramatic substance. We already know what most parties will tell the president, and we know that Netanyahu does not have the 61-seat coalition he needs. His expected attempt to get to 61 by recruiting the Islamist Raam party was killed by the right-wing Religious Zionist Party.

Political science Professor Gayil Talshir, of Hebrew University, joined Rosner’s Podcast to discuss Israel’s political developments. When we taped our conversation, Talshir said that those who ride with ideologues must be prepared to pay the price for it. And the Religious Zionist Party is staunchly ideological. Netanyahu helped it rise because he needed to maximize the right-wing vote. But now he must watch with frustration as this party blocks his main path to a viable coalition.

Netanyahu’s other path — convincing New Hope (and its leader Gideon Saar) to “rejoin” his camp — also suffered a blow. On Sunday evening, Saar made a statement that left no room for speculation. He refuses to sit under Netanyahu in a coalition. The Likud Party now toys with the only possibility that’s still available for Netanyahu: identifying members of other parties that would defect to “save the country” from a fifth election and, as a side matter, secure a cushy job.

Netanyahu will have 52 MKs who want him — or at least say they do — as prime minister. Opposition leader Yair Lapid will have fewer recommendations. And Naftali Bennett of the Yamina Party, the person with the highest chances to form a coalition, will have the least number of recommendations. But there still is a path to a coalition and a government for him. Not an easy one but still a path. For him to succeed, three things must happen.

First, and most important, Bennett has to decide to form a coalition. He has to make a leap with no safety net to ensure his survival. That Bennett wants to wait until the last minute and verify his chances of success is understandable. And yet, at some point, he will have to risk his political future to show that he has the guts to be a king slayer. A right-wing leader, with a bright and long future before him, must take on the old lion and bear the consequences.

A right-wing leader must take on the old lion and bear the consequences.

Bennett will also need to ensure that his partners, namely Yair Lapid, are ready to pay the price to be his supporting cast. With 17 seats, and as the clear head of the opposition, Lapid will be asked to accept reality of an opposition boss with seven seats. It seems as if Lapid had already made his decision. Lapid is willing to let Bennett be the PM to see Bibi fall. But for how long, under what conditions and with what arrangements?

Other parties must also decide what to do. This is especially true for the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, who show loyalty to Netanyahu but at some point must decide if loyalty goes as far as sitting in the opposition for who knows how long. Bennett and Saar, as they plot a way forward, would like to form a coalition that the Haredi parties can still join, if not at the outset, then at least a few months later. This means a coalition with Bennett (7), Saar (6), Lapid (17), Blue and White (8), Labor (6), Shas (9) and UTJ (7). That’s 61 seats. That’s a fragile government that is going to be challenged, time and again, by Likud and Religious Zionism. Expect many state-religion legislation attempts by Religious Zionists to embarrass the Haredi parties or make them vote in a way that embarrasses Lapid. Expect provocations aimed at exposing the radical leftism of certain Labor MKs to embarrass Bennett and erode his credentials as a right winger.

Can a coalition withstand such attacks? Here’s where events at the other side of Jerusalem could provide Bennett with a remedy: Bennett forms a coalition, Likud members begin to grumble in the opposition, Netanyahu’s trial drags on, the former PM loses his magical hold on his party, and he is challenged or forced to leave. Bennett invites Likud, without Netanyahu, into his fragile coalition and stabilizes it.

Sounds like a path too risky to take? Sounds like too many ifs and buts? Then a fifth election is probably the remaining option. Or something so wild we can’t even see it.