1.
Much is still in flux in Israel, as the political system is going through an earthquake. After several days in which Israel was waiting to see if the Labor Party, headed by Isaac Herzog, is serious about joining the right wing coalition of Benjamin Netanyahu – the tables were turned. Netanyahu offered the Defense Ministry portfolio to Avigdor Lieberman, the head of the Israel Beiteinu party and a fierce critic of the government from the right. Lieberman apparently accepted. His appointment is probably the most controversial appointment of a minister in Israel’s history.
2.
There were controversial appointments of ministers in the past. Ariel Sharon became the Defense Minister in the Menachem Begin government of the early 1980s. He was controversial – but he was also a military hero, the victorious general of the 1973 war. A natural choice. A choice that could be explained quite easily.
Yitzhak Rabin appointed Shulamit Aloni as his Education Minister. She was controversial – her whole career was built on being controversial, on challenging the status quo, on pushing the envelope leftward. Unsurprisingly, she did not survive very long as Education Minister. And the damage – if there was any – was manageable. The Education Ministry, as important as it might be when thinking about the long term, is not a place in which a wrong decision today can cause a great damage tomorrow.
That is to say: The Defense Ministry is the one ministry that really counts. Appointing a controversial figure, with a long history of ridiculously radical statements, with no experience in military affairs, with little political support (Lieberman is the head of a small party), who has rocky relations with the Prime Minister, to be Israel’s Defense Minister is, well, not an easy move to explain. Likud MK Benny Begin, son of the Prime Minister who appointed Sharon, called Netanyahu’s decision “delusional.” So maybe it is not yet a done deal.
3.
Why did Netanyahu decide to expand his coalition? Because too many MK’s were using the 61 majority to pressure him and force him into making decisions with which he was not happy. A notable example: the decision to bring to Israel a new group of immigrants from Ethiopia whom most Israelis do not consider to be Jewish.
4.
Why did Netanyahu choose Lieberman over Herzog?
Herzog was not able to deliver. In recent days it became clear that of the 24 MK’s he nominally has in the Knesset only eight or nine intend to join the coalition. The other MK’s were in a rebellious mood. If all Netanyahu can get from Labor are eight MK’s – he might as well take Lieberman’s six, a much more submissive bunch.
Likud members were unhappy, and the right wing was worried about Herzog. Netanyahu learned many years ago that for a politician like him the most important political skill is to keep his base. Taking Lieberman in is more in line with such strategy.
5.
If Lieberman becomes Defense Minister, what happens to Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon? Netanyahu does not much care. Ya’alon has little political power within Likud, and not much with which to threaten Netanyahu. He is not as astute a politician as Lieberman. He might get the Foreign Ministry, or might not. He might decide to be a spoiler in Netanyahu’s coalition, or might not. Ya’alon’s honorable defense of the IDF during recent turmoil, and his insistence on positions that some right-wingers considered too dovish, made him the negligible political casualty of a game that he does not know how to play.
6.
What happens with Herzog? The head of Labor held two press conferences today, the second of which was the angriest such event of any politician in a very long time.
Yes – Herzog was angry with Netanyahu. But he seemed much angrier with his fellow Laborites – especially Shelly Yacimovich – who kept attacking him in recent days because of his decision to explore the possibility of joining Netanyahu. No – he has no regrets. He had to explore this possibility. No – he has no intention to quit. He is going to fight back against his detractors, and have zero tolerance for those people who drag the Labor Party leftward. No – he no longer thinks that a coalition with Netanyahu is likely. Netanyahu had made his choice and all Herzog is left with is this internal political battle against Yacimovitz and most other Labor MK’s. It is a battle that few observers expect him to win.
7.
Channel 2 News broadcasted a short clip tonight in which Lieberman is viewed, just a few weeks ago, making a promise that he can now fulfil. Immediately following his appointment as Defense Minister he will present the PM of Hamas in Gaza with a choice: either return the bodies of missing Israeli soldiers to Israel within 48 hours – or die.
Very soon, Lieberman could be Israel’s Defense Minister, and one has to wonder how the people of Gaza understand this new appointment.
8.
Last but not least: it is now Wednesday evening in Israel. Everything can still change. It changed in the last 24 hours, it can change again in the next 24 hours. For better – or worse.
