Israel Under Fire: Biden’s Test

Here are three things to know about the current situation in Israel:

1. Israel doesn’t want to cease fire

Not yet. Not when Hamas can still claim that it has won this round. Think what you want about the root causes of the disease. Think what you want about the connection, real or made up, of Hamas’ decision to escalate and Israel’s policies in East Jerusalem. In the Middle East perceptions count, and Israel cannot afford to be seen as weak, not because of Hamas (Hamas is not a real threat) but because of Iran and its allies.

In other words, Israel must make it clear to all those who entertain violent ideas that the price they will pay for their aggression is going to be high. Those who preach to Israel a “proportional response” do not understand this region’s game of power. If the response is proportional, Hamas has an incentive to relaunch a violent attack — it gains as much as it loses. If it is disproportional, Hamas would have to reconsider next time. And have no doubt: There will be next time.

2. Gaza isn’t necessarily the main story

The world is more focused on Gaza and the rockets flying, but many Israelis are more concerned about the violence in mixed Arab-Jewish cities such as Lydia and Acre. In the last couple of days, an Arab mob threatened, attacked, burned and rioted in Lydia, to the point that the city was put under emergency rule.

Why is this more concerning than Gaza? Because Gaza is there — an outside power, without much power — and Israel is here. Unlike Gazans, to which Israel said a sort-of goodbye and good-luck when it withdrew from the Gaza Strip in 2005, Arab Israelis are fellow citizens. They are here, running hospitals, building houses, writing software, teaching at universities.

It could take a week or two to set the clock of Jewish-Arab relations a few years back.

The political and social honeymoon of recent months between Jewish and Arab Israelis — the novel situation that enables mainstream and even right-wing parties to consider a coalition with Arab parties — is fragile. It took the last two years to inch toward possible cooperation. It could take a week or two to set the clock of Jewish-Arab relations a few years back.

3. Biden eyed with suspicion

The Gaza eruption is the first test of Israel’s relations with the new U.S. administration, and many Israelis (I’d say more than half) are already feeling that the Biden team is not exactly what they have in mind when they think about a friendly administration.

For example, some Democratic activists are pointing a finger at Israel — as if its actions in Jerusalem are the detonator that prompted escalation. Most Israelis do not think that’s the case. Not all of them would be overly sympathetic to the eviction of families from Sheik Jarrah (although the eviction is mandated by the court who ruled against the Palestinian residents).

And yet, the Biden administration does not see a connection between Hamas firing rockets at Israel in response to an internal political battle. (Could you imagine Mexico bombing the United States when it feels that a U.S. court was unjust to claims of Mexican-Americans?)

The administration then continues with the call for restraint by Israel and Hamas, as if both parties share the responsibility for the escalation. “Israel does have a right to defend itself,” State Department spokesman Ned Price stated (the obvious). But after four years of Donald Trump, in which the United States deferred to Israeli policy, the Biden team seems more willing to consider intervention, which usually means pressure on Israel, the stronger party, to tame its response to belligerent attacks.

“Under Biden,” Trump tweeted, “the world is getting more violent and more unstable… and lack of support for Israel is leading to new attacks on our allies.” You might think that Trump was the worst U.S. president ever — but even the worst president ever could be right sometimes. Yes, Hamas is testing the waters. Yes, Hamas hopes that under Biden, Israel would have to be more careful. Yes, Biden’s hesitant support contributes to the notion that maybe now is the right time to be violent.

Shmuel Rosner is an Israeli columnist, editor, and researcher. He is the editor of the research and data-journalism website themadad.com and is the political editor of the Jewish Journal.