Israel File Appendix: Yesh Atid Troubles

Table of Polls

The weighted average below takes into account three factors: the timing of the poll (more recent, more important); the number of people surveyed (more people, more weight); the average error for each party in the last three rounds of elections.

The average still shows Yesh Atid as the second largest party, but in a few recent polls (including one on Saturday night), Yamina surpassed Yesh Atid as the main competitor for leading the opposition to Netanyahu.

We need to see more polls before we know if the rupture within Yesh Atid (Shelach challenges Lapid — details in The Israel File) will weaken the party. This is a possibility, and it worries Lapid.

This graph is unlikely to change because of (at least) two recent developments. First Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai, declared his intention to run. It is unclear how and as part of what party (maybe his own party). Two, it is widely assumed that Shelach will attempt to form a left-leaning bloc under him if Lapid refuses (as we expect) to have open primaries at Yesh Atid.

The current coalition is doing badly and the public is flocking to the opposition parties. However, it does not move to the left but rather (mostly) to the right-wing opposition party, Yamina. That’s why the ideological bloc of the right-religious parties is still stronger than the other bloc. In other words, Yamina and its leader Naftali Bennet could hold the key to Israel’s next coalition. Don’t assume that Bennet would agree to sit under Netanyahu again.