September 16, 2019

Handbook Update: Democratic Camp Doesn’t Impact Blocs

Former Israeli prime minister and Defence minster Ehud Barak speaks during a launching event of the Reporty App in Tel Aviv, March 16, 2016. Photo by Flash90

Yesterday, when a new party was born, I promised a quick update when new numbers come out (yesterday’s more detailed post is here). So – three polls came out last night. They give the new Democratic Camp, the party that includes Meretz, Democratic Israel and MK Stav Shafir from Labor, 10, 9 and 12 seats.

What does it mean? As usual, our tendency is to watch the blocs, not the parties. And for you to see that the new party does not much matter – at least not for now – we created a graph that includes the averages of the blocs in the last 20, 10, 5 and 3 polls. The missing part (if you want the understand why there are no 120 seats in this graph) is the party in between the blocs: Israel Beitenu.

The important factor here is simple. The blocs did not change in the last two months. They also did not change yesterday, as the column of the last three polls prove. As I explained earlier this week in the New York Times, no bloc can currently form a coalition.