The War in Iran and the Long-Term Relationship with America

How will Israel’s long-term relationship with the U.S. be affected? On the one hand, Israel launched a preemptive war against Iran at a time when relations with the American administration were at an all-time high. On the other hand, just days before the attack, the Gallup Institute published its annual poll, revealing a dramatic negative reversal in the American public’s attitude toward Israel. Support for Israel is at an all-time low among Democrats, but Israel also experienced a significant decline among Republicans and Independents. As long as things continue on their current trajectory, a sharp shift in the approach toward Israel is expected under the next Democratic administration, and potentially even under a Republican administration in the “day after” Trump.

Three powerful vectors are shaping the discourse, and they also influence the current wave of antisemitism in the U.S.:

The first vector is the tendency to blame Israel for dragging America into a war with Iran. This trend is expected to dramatically accelerate the distancing of Republican isolationists from Israel (as reflected in the Gallup poll published before the war), and it places the American Jewish community under siege with accusations of “dual loyalty.” The combination of contradictory, incoherent narratives and “unsuccessful” phrasing of the reasons for the war by government officials creates fertile ground for the growth of conspiracy theories from both the right and the left regarding the power of the pro-Israel lobby — theories that are often accompanied by distinct antizionist and antisemitic sentiment.

The second vector — expressions of joy by Iranian exiles over the death of Khamenei and the American-Israeli campaign — presents a rare strategic opportunity to go on the offensive and drive a wedge into what is known as the “Red-Green Alliance.” This alliance between the radical left and Islamist bodies in the West is at the forefront of the movement to delegitimize Israel. It relies on the simplistic current discourse of identity politics, which divides the world into “privileged white oppressors” and “marginalized oppressed.” The sight of Iranian exiles (“brown people” in Progressive parlance) waving Israeli flags alongside pre-revolutionary Iranian flags creates a deep cognitive dissonance that challenges the ideological and intellectual foundation underlying this phenomenon.

The third vector is the ideological victory of the Abraham Accords. The Iranian response to the opening Israeli-American blow included an attack against ten countries in the region — including even Qatar, which has supported Hamas and focused all its soft power against Israel in recent years. Suddenly, Israel is perceived as the one standing courageously at the front of the effort, fighting the war of the regional nations and the Iranian people against a regime that is tyrannical, Islamist, and a pariah. Even countries that condemn Israel publicly are blessing it behind closed doors. The framing of Israel as an “alien entity” in the region is crumbling.

It must be said honestly that the first vector is more dominant at this stage. Furthermore, the most influential factor will be the question of how the war ends. The shorter the campaign and the more it ends in a decisive victory, the greater the opportunity for Israel to improve its standing.

Alongside these factors, through informed moves, it will be possible to seize an unrepeatable opportunity to halt the deterioration of support for Israel. Regarding the first vector, Israel should not be at the forefront; however, it must utilize its good ties with the current administration to encourage it to continue the president’s line and speak of the war as being based first and foremost on clear American interests. This should be the goal and the “finest hour” of Jewish community-relations organizations, which are also entrusted with ties to external parties and must promote this framework.

There is a golden opportunity to expose the intellectual bankruptcy of antisemitism based on current identity politics discourse, and to credibly argue that the current struggle is a global confrontation between the forces of terror and oppression and the Free World. Such moves will allow Israel to re-establish its status as an anchor of freedom and stability in the Middle East, and thereby perhaps also enjoy renewed support from the American public.

Eran Shayshon is the founder of Atchalta, an Israel-based nonprofit that turns big ideas into actionable technology to strengthen the resilience of Israel and the Jewish world.