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Will Netanyahu Rise to the Occasion and Make History?

His speech in the U.S. Congress gives him a unique chance to shape his legacy after two very difficult years that have tarnished his reputation.
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July 24, 2024
Kent Nishimura/Getty Images

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is an ardent student of history. Now that he’s in the twilight of his career, after leading his country for a record 16 years and counting, he must surely be thinking of his place in history.

His upcoming speech in the U.S. Congress gives him a unique chance to shape his legacy after two very difficult years that have tarnished his reputation.

Will he rise to the occasion? The old Netanyahu surely would.

What so many people tend to forget is that Netanyahu is not an ideologue or a religious extremist. He’s cautious. His favorite position in a coalition is in the middle. He much prefers building Israel’s reputation around the world than fighting religious battles inside Israel. He’s known not to start wars easily.

But we’ve seen a different, hardened, divisive Netanyahu these past couple of years, given that he had to partner with uncompromising ideologues to forge his current coalition. His cautious side was suffocated by the need to constantly appease the extremists in his coalition and prevent his government from falling.

As he prepares to speak in Congress, the same dynamics will be at play.

He has two roads in front of him. The first road, which will please the ideologues, is to continue to go for the “total victory” he promised in Gaza, play hardball with Hamas and delay any formal approval of a ceasefire-hostage deal.

The second road is the one that can reshape his legacy.

It starts by agreeing to the ceasefire-hostage deal tentatively reached by U.S., Israeli, Qatari, Egyptian and Hamas negotiators. This deal entails a six-week pause in the fighting in Gaza and the return of 33 Israeli hostages in return for several hundred Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. The deal is supported by the majority of the Israeli defense establishment and doesn’t preclude operations against Hamas in the future. If anything, it’s a way to cash in on the courageous accomplishment of the IDF, which has severely crippled the Hamas terror army.

The problem is that Netanyahu cannot utter the words “ceasefire” without risking the wrath of his far-right partners. The benefits, however, would be plenty.

First, agreeing to the ceasefire-hostage deal would pave the way for a Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire, enabling tens of thousands of Israeli refugees to return to their homes in the north.

But more important, it would pave the way for the one move that would crush the soul of both Hamas and Iran—an alliance with Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of Islam.

If you think the Abraham Accords were something, adding Saudi Arabia to the mix would be like adding Moses and the patriarchs. It would change the game in the region. It would solidify the all-important Sunni-Israel-U.S. alliance against Iran, by far the biggest existential threat to Israel’s future.

On my recent trip to Israel, I spoke with an expert who told me that the price to pay for any deal with Saudi Arabia—a willingness to negotiate in good faith with the Palestinians—was an illusion. There is no price, he told me cynically, because the Palestinians will never agree to any deal.

Politically, of course, is a different story. Netanyahu knows that any hint of negotiating with the Palestinians is a red line for the ideologues in his coalition and risks the fall of his government.

So, one road is full of political risks but offers significant benefits. The other road keeps the status quo going with no political risk.

The safe road is the easy one but does nothing to rescue Netanyahu’s legacy. The daring road opens up a new future for Israel and offers the best chance to reshape his legacy.

As David Makovsky, Director of the Washington Institute’s Project on Arab-Israel Relations, said to Thomas Friedman in The New York Times: “With two decisions — yes on a hostages-for-cease-fire deal now and yes on the Saudi normalization terms that would end the Sunni Arab states’ war with Israel and consolidate a regional alliance to isolate Iran — Netanyahu would create a win for Israel and for his partner President Biden.

“It would be a bitter and tragic irony if Netanyahu — whose self-image is one of a strategic thinker — would miss this moment due to Israeli domestic politics and fear of his far-right coalition partners.”

Netanyahu’s tendency under this coalition has been to constantly thread the needle trying to please all sides, which may be understandable given the tight spot he’s been in.

The problem is that you don’t make history by threading needles. You make it by sticking your neck out with the faith that you’ll have history on your side.

Netanyahu, however, has been in such survival mode, maybe history for him has shrunk into a day-to-day affair where he can’t see beyond the next news cycle.

 

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