The Race to Replace Garcetti

There are approximately 4.3 billion easily identifiable reasons that Rick Caruso could be the next mayor of Los Angeles. But the most important of those reasons has nothing to do with his wealth. As a successful business leader, Caruso has unsurprisingly billed himself as a “pro-jobs” candidate in the race. But his other point of primary emphasis – his “pro-public safety” self-designation — is much more telling. If Caruso is elected as L.A.’s next chief executive, it will be public dissatisfaction with perceived safety that gets him there. 

The twin issues of homelessness and crime will dominate this election from beginning to end, and both have the potential to be Achilles’ heels for the type of progressive candidates who make up most of the top tier of competitors in this election. Voters who lean left on most other policy challenges have demonstrated a willingness to embrace more aggressive measures to make their communities safe from violent crime and to keep their neighborhoods from being swallowed by a rapidly expanding homeless population. Caruso’s public statements on both topics have indicated his preference for such an approach, reflecting the growing impatience of otherwise liberal Angelenos for their politicians to regain control of the city’s streets. 

Until recently, the only candidate in the race taking a more hard-line stance on these issues has been City Councilmember Joe Buscaino, a former police officer whose proposals on both homelessness and crime have been noticeably more forceful than his colleagues on the Council or his opponents in this campaign. Buscaino is not the front-runner in the campaign: that distinction has belonged to Representative Karen Bass. But he may have been the most important candidate in the field: his tougher approach on these issues has put pressure on Bass and her fellow progressives City Attorney Mike Feuer and Councilmember Kevin De León to adjust their strategies given the change in public attitude. Just days before Caruso’s entry, Bass announced a plan to expand the Los Angeles Police Department. Feuer and De Leon both face difficult decisions on whether to follow Bass’ path toward the political center or whether to try to outflank her to the left by maintaining their support for the type of preventive and service-oriented programs that until recently have dominated local and state politics for much of the 21st century.

Between Bass’ strategic adjustments and Caruso’s entry into the race, the turf that Buscaino has had to himself is suddenly more crowded. Given the changes in the public’s mood, such a shift may have been inevitable. But Buscaino was the first to claim that space, and he will not share it easily: within hours of Caruso’s announcement, Buscaino criticized Caruso for hosting a fundraiser for embattled LA District Attorney George Gascon. A campaign usually leaks that type of information to the media to avoid being linked to it. But in this case, Buscaino may have intended to deliver a message to Caruso that he should not expect deferential treatment from his rivals.

The path to City Hall will not be an easy one for Caruso. Billionaires are rarely popular with the sizable portion of the electorate that has not achieved their level of wealth, and that resentment could be even greater given the economic realities for voters in a city that has not an easy time during the pandemic. In the almost thirty years since businessman Dick Riordan was elected mayor, the city’s blue-tinted politics have gone from azure to indigo and LA’s growing demographic diversity could be a formidable obstacle to any white male candidate.

Michael Bloomberg, Dianne Feinstein, Nancy Pelosi and many others can attest that great wealth is not a fatal political weakness for Democratic candidates. 

But LA’s multi-cultural electorate has been represented by another white man – current mayor and soon-to-be ambassador Eric Garcetti — for the last nine years. And Michael Bloomberg, Dianne Feinstein, Nancy Pelosi and many others can attest that great wealth is not a fatal political weakness for Democratic candidates. 

Caruso is well-positioned for a voting public that has run out of patience – and may also be running low on compassion. But if he is going to be LA’s next mayor, he’s won’t get there without a fight.

Dan Schnur is a Professor at the University of California – Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. Join Dan for his weekly webinar “Politics in the Time of Coronavirus” (www/lawac.org) on Tuesdays at 5 PM.