Iranian Games 2021: the First Act

Heraclitus, a Greek philosopher (544 B.C.), is famous for saying that “no man ever steps in the same river twice, for it’s not the same river and he’s not the same man.” It is a good quote to use as we think about the next attempt to revive the Iran nuclear deal, more formally known as the JCPOA (The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

No man ever steps in the same river twice, and no country can sign the same agreement twice. Why? For it’s not the same situation, and it’s not the same country. I am not the only one citing this wisdom; the head of the U.N. atomic watchdog (IAEA) effectively said the same when he stated, “I cannot imagine that they are going simply to say, ‘We are back to square one’ because square one is no longer there.” The river is not the same river, and as President-elect Biden takes office and prepares to renegotiate with Iran, reentering the Obama-era agreement will not be available to him.

We are reminded of this aphorism because even though the year just started (President Trump is still trying to keep his job and President-elect Biden is still polishing his inaugural speech), Iran is already sending signals — lest anyone forget that it is there, waiting, and has expectations. Iran announced that it began enriching uranium to levels unseen since it signed the nuclear deal. The deal had capped the fissile purity to which Iran can refine uranium at 3.67%. Iran breached that cap in 2019, and its enrichment level remained steady at up to 4.5% since then. It is now moving to restore its 20% level enrichment.

What are these? These are signals.

Trump is no longer a threat. Negotiations with Biden are on the horizon. The Iranians must play as many cards as they have when they renegotiate a deal. If they enrich uranium to a higher level, giving up on enrichment is something they can trade for something else. If negotiations become difficult, they can up the ante and move from 20% enrichment to an even higher level.

The pressure is on the other side, namely, Biden. After the new president is inaugurated, he will have only a narrow window of time to reignite a process of negotiations. In March, Iran begins its new year and has a long holiday. When the holiday is over, the Iranian presidential campaign begins. So, from January to June, there is very little time to talk.

The pressure is on the other side, namely, Biden.

The United States wants Iran “to roll back its recent breaches, especially on uranium enrichment.” Iran wants U.S. sanctions lifted. Parties also need to consider Europe, not always unified, and China, whose reaction to Iran’s recent breach was: “China urges all sides to exercise calm and restraint, to stick to the commitments of the agreement and to refrain from taking actions that might escalate tensions, so as to make space for diplomatic efforts and a change in the situation.” There’s Israel, supported by the Saudis, Egypt and other Gulf states, who want any deal — the new deal because you can’t step into the same river twice — to correct some of the many flaws of the previous deal.

One question for Biden is this: Does he see the flaws? Would he be willing to acknowledge — not publicly for people to gloat but rather as a policy directive — that the previous agreement was flawed? The agreement was signed when he was the vice president, so admitting errors would be complicated for him and possibly embarrassing. Luckily, it has been a long time since the agreement was finalized, and Biden can also use Heraclitus to tell the Iranians that what they want is no longer available, neither for him nor for them.

True, Persians and Greeks did not always see the world in the same way. But Heraclitus is special. He lived in the city of Ephesus when it was part of the Persian Empire. At least some origins of his philosophy can be traced to Persian sources.