Reality Sinks In: Biden Is Not That Bad (for Israel)

Israelis do not have a great track record in predicting the relations between their government and Israel. Sometimes they get it right (Donald Trump), and sometimes they get it wrong (George W. Bush). Often, they forget that the U.S. President is elected to govern a different country, not Israel, and thus have unrealistic expectations about him.

One thing is permanent: they always pay attention to the U.S. election, both because it’s fun (and not as annoying as paying attention to their own frustrating political process) and because they know that an American president plays an important role in Israel’s political life.

What was true for every other president is also true for President-elect Biden. Israelis watched his rise with a measure of apprehension because of his term as Vice President under President Obama, whom they disliked. They also watched his rise with apprehension because of their affinity towards President Trump. But they are getting used to a new reality, as they should. Biden, as I already wrote here, is hardly Israel’s enemy. Biden is also the new president, whether Israel likes it or not.

How do we know they are getting used to this new reality? We are seeing signs in polls from Israel’s Democracy Institute. Only a month ago, many of the Israelis surveyed argued that if Biden wins, relations between the two countries will get worse. Today, most of those surveyed think that U.S.-Israel relations will probably not change much under Biden. They will get a little better, a little worse or not change at all.

This does not mean that Israelis moved from adoring Trump to adoring Biden. From June to October, the share of Israelis who believe Trump is better for Israel than Biden has gotten larger. But reality is a strong medicine. And as long as Biden doesn’t do anything outrageously hostile to Israel (I do not think he would) or is seen as harmful to its security (a possibility on the issue of Iran), Israelis are going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

This mindset isn’t always the case with Americans, specifically American pundits. Consider the article by Jackson Diehl at the Washington Post this morning. Diehl describes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reaction to Biden’s victory as “reprehensible.” He refers to Netanyahu’s actions in recent weeks as “scorched-earth tactics.” He writes that Netanyahu’s “reaction to Biden’s victory has outstripped even that of Vladimir Putin in its malevolent audacity.”

Strong words, backed by the following weak evidence:

“Netanyahu’s partisan commitment to Trump before the election was as blatant as the enormous banner he once draped over a Tel Aviv office building picturing the two of them together.”

Well, that was a way for Netanyahu to secure the support of Israelis, not a way for him to influence the American election.

“The prime minister’s tweet did not address Biden as president-elect, nor explicitly acknowledge he had won.”

This is true; Netanyahu waited a little bit to make sure he did not congratulate the wrong person and made the cold yet accurate calculation that waiting before congratulating Biden would be less harmful than congratulating him and then realizing that Trump was the actual winner.

But Diehl’s third argument is the most outrageous. He claims, “Netanyahu has publicly taken a militant stand against one of Biden’s principal foreign policy pledges: that he would return the United States to the nuclear accord with Iran.”

How did Netanyahu do such a thing? According to Diehl, “Israel is widely reported to be behind the Nov. 27 assassination of Iran’s leading nuclear scientist. That provocative act… could sabotage Biden’s attempt to revive ­diplomacy.”

I began this article by acknowledging that some Israelis — possibly many of them — tend to forget that the U.S. president is the leader of a different country. Diehl proves that some Americans make the same mistake. They tend to forget that Netanyahu’s job is not to make the American president’s life easier, but rather to keep Israel safe. If this means action against Iran — so be it. If this means action against Iran that might disrupt a coveted round of Iranian-American negotiation — so be it. And no, this should not be counted as Netanyahu attempting to ruin it for Biden. This should be counted as Netanyahu doing what he needs to do to safeguard Israel (of course, one can still argue against this policy on its merits and argue that it actually hurts Israel).

Americans tend to forget that Netanyahu’s job is not to make the American president’s life easier, but rather to keep Israel safe.

Let me say it again in a slightly different way: Netanyahu acting against Iran is not for or against any particular American politicians. It is not about Trump or Biden, Pence or Harris; it is not about Obama or Clinton or Bush. It is about personality and policy. Had Biden signaled that his policy on Iran would be as tough as Trump’s or tougher, Netanyahu would welcome it. Had Biden represented a policy of zero tolerance to Iranian aggression, Netanyahu would welcome it. This is not about American party politics. This is about policy choices (Netanyahu emphasizes Iran).

You don’t think it is? Let Biden test Netanyahu. Let him test Israel. Let him follow Trump’s policies and see how Netanyahu and Israelis react. Let him do it, and in four years, Republicans will be complaining about a too pro-Democratic Israeli government.