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Election Handbook: 5 Days, Likud Climbs

[additional-authors]
February 26, 2020

We call this format a Timesaver Guide to Israel’s Coming Elections. This will be a usual feature on Rosner’s Domain until next Election Day, March 2, 2020. We hope to make it short, factual, devoid of election hype.

 

Bottom Line

Likud and Netanyahu are getting closer to 61.

 

Main News

Campaigns: Netanyahu focuses on Gantz’ reliance on Arab support, Gantz attempts to lure back votes he lost to Labor-Meretz.

Gantz: A Likud campaign paints him as confused, unfocused, leader. It asks “what’s wrong with Gantz”, as if he has a medical problem.

Gaza: Back to calm. Blue and White criticize Netanyahu’s “bribing” of Hamas.

Polls: Thursday is the last day of public polling (that’s Israel’s law).

 

Developments to Watch

Likud momentum: All recent polls show a rise in the number of expected Likud seats. According to these polls, Likud, not B&W, will have the largest number of seats.

 

 

The Blocs and Their Meaning

Take a look at the following graphs. They show that the Netanyahu bloc is slightly growing, after a long period of stagnation. The current expected number of seats for the bloc is still far from what Netanyahu needs (61), but we know from experience that the last days of the campaign can easily add (or detract) a few seats to a party, and, possibly, a bloc.

As for the no-Netanyahu bloc, the situation did not much change. Its slight decline still allows it to form a coalition if – and that’s a big if – all parties involved agree to accept a reality of a coalition that relies on the support of the Arab Joint List. The current numbers necessitate active support of Arab MK’s and not merely their abstention from voting.

 

 

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