July 18, 2019

Israel’s Election Handbook: Stability of the Right

We call this format a Timesaver Guide to Israel’s Coming Elections. This will be a usual feature on Rosner’s Domain until April 9th. We hope to make it short, factual, devoid of election hype, and of he-said-she-said no news, unimportant inside baseball gossip.

Bottom Line

Likud gaining in recent polls.

Main News

Minister Shaked under attack, following a scandal involving an ally.

Labor MK’s leaving the party (3 thus far).

Lapid also promises to change Nationality Law.

Developments to Watch

Political: The Jewish Home party named a list of activists, rabbis and leaders. These people will name the new leader of the party. In recent polls, the party doesn’t always get enough votes to get into the Knesset.

Political: According to the first poll to test the split in the United Arab List, MK Ahmad Tibi made the right choice when he decided to run alone (the Taal Party). He is projected to get 6 seats, instead of the 2 he currently has. The UAL declines to 6 seats (from its current 13).

Personal: Labor MK’s Nahmias-Verbin, Bar, Broshi, will not run again. They say it is an ideological decision, but it is worth noting that the prospect of them getting into the next Knesset were dim.

Material: Possible merger of all Haredi parties is under serious discussion. This can save Shas whose current situation is fragile. It is also interesting as Ashkenazi and Sephardic haredis do not usually mix.

Material: Gantz’ slogan revealed: “Israel comes first”.

What’s the Race About

When will Gantz finally say something? Will his numbers hold when he does?

The Blocs and Their Meaning

Here is one of the two options of political blocs we track (in the other one, Israel Beiteinu is in the center). Note that we added the new Arab Party, Taal, to the left bloc. In the graphs bellow you can see what happened to these blocs since Dec. 25, the day new elections were announced.



What you can see here (for the two options) is how little changed on average since the beginning of 2018. We compare the average of polls since January 2018, to the average of the last 5 polls. The result: 2-3 more seats for the center, 2-3 less for the left. Over all, the political situation remains the same. A coalition can be formed by the right plus some of the center, or by the center plus a lot more of the right. Since the Likud Party is head and shoulders above all other parties for now, the likelihood is for a right plus some center coalition.



Focus on One Party

Since Tzipi Livni was forced to separate herself from Labor (and the Zionist Camp), her party, Hatnua, is included in polls. But the party does not do very well. In fact, in most polls it gets less than the minimum required to get to the next Knesset (4 seats is the minimum – in rare cases 3). Here you can these polls. When Livni does not cross the threshold, we apply 0 (seats) to her party even though she does get some votes. 1.89 is her average seat number (that’s equals 0). 6 is the number of MK’s she won with the Zionist Camp. It should be noted that if Livni gets closer to election day in such fragile situation, many of her voters could end up deciding to cast their vote for a party with better chances to have representation in the Knesset (likely choices, Lapid and Gantz).