fbpx

When Obama’s gone it will get better? Says who?

[additional-authors]
March 26, 2015

A slightly different Hebrew version of this article was published in Maariv Daily this morning.

In February 1983, two formerly bitter rivals penned a joint article against a joint nuisance. The two signatories were former Presidents of the United States, who only seven years earlier fought tooth and nail in a campaign for the White House. Jimmy Carter came on top; Gerald Ford was the losing contender. Eventually, both of them were one term presidents (in Ford’s case a little less than a term). And both were presidents that the government of Israel successfully annoyed. Yitzhak Rabin made Ford angry, to the extent that the President decided to “reevaluate” the US’ relations with Israel. Menachem Begin made Carter angry, so much so that even the shared achievement of accomplishing a peace deal between Israel and Egypt could not compensate for the bad feelings between these two leaders.

Begin was the target of the Ford-Carter article of 1983. “Israel must halt its settlement policy – a move that alone might break the diplomatic logjam”, they wrote. They also wrote that Israel’s policies are “the major obstacle to any moderate Arab initiatives for a peaceful resolution of differences”. Carter has said much worse things about Israel since then, and we have not necessarily seen the end of it yet. For Ford this was a serious enough accusation. The current Israeli Prime Minister, not a favorite of Carter, or of his successor’s successor’s successor, at least doesn’t need to worry about Ford hitting him with more criticism.

I was reminded of these two presidents and their article during a conversation with an Israel-loving American on an airplane from Philadelphia to – this was a coincidence – Atlanta, Georgia. “Who told you”, the American asked me teasingly, “that in two years it is going to get better?”

This is an important question, a worthy question, concerning the still-deteriorating relations between the US and Israeli governments. In other words, this American was asking: why do you think that when Barack Obama is no longer President, a more understanding, friendlier President is going to replace him?

It has been more than a week since Binyamin Netanyahu was elected again as Prime Minister of Israel, and it seems as if the Obama administration can’t get over this shocking reality. The administration “believes” Netanyahu’s assessment that a Palestinian state will not be established when he is Prime Minister – “We take him at his word when he said that it wouldn't happen during his prime ministership”. Namely, it chooses not to believe Netanyahu’s clarifications and explanations according to which his remarks were taken out of context. He does not oppose a Palestinian State, he just doesn’t think it is realistic that such a state will be established in the near future. In short: The Obama people chose to believe what they think Netanyahu believes and not what Netanyahu says he believes. That is their choice. That is their right. In fact, many Israelis do exactly the same with Obama: he says that he supports Israel and is a friend of Israel, and they choose not to believe him.

So everyone – the papers, the pundits, the experts, off-the-record officials – more or less agrees: the next two years, when Obama is still in office and Netanyahu is Israel’s Prime Minister, are going to be tough. That is, until Obama says goodbye. Enter my fellow traveler, the American, with his penetrating question. Why two years? Did anyone promise Israel, did anyone whisper to Netanyahu, that after Obama a more understanding President is a done deal?

It is quite convenient for Israelis – and possibly for many Americans as well – to think that Obama is the exception, some would call it the “problem”, and that after Obama we can go back to a US-Israel relationship like the one we had in the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush years. It is convenient to believe that because such a going-back-to-the-old-routine would be much easier for Israel. It is convenient to believe that because the alternative is highly troubling. The alternative is to think that Obama’s cold shoulder is not an exception but rather a beginning of a new era. Maybe Israel’s problem is not an angry President, but rather a changing America. Maybe Clinton and Bush marked the end of an era that is never coming back.

Think about Hillary Clinton – currently the leading Democratic candidate for 2016. There is no reason to suspect that she is a huge fan of Prime Minister Netanyahu. Think about Jeb Bush, a leading Republican candidate. Bush, a few days ago, felt the need to distance himself from words that his own foreign policy advisor, Jim Baker, said about Israel. Baker, much like Obama, chose to believe Netanyahu – namely, not to believe him. “In the aftermath of Netanyahu’s recent election victory”, Baker said – in a J Street conference of all places – “the chance of a two-state solution seems even slimmer, given his reversal on the issue”. Bush, in a visit to Atlanta last week, had a reassuring message for Israel supporters that met with him. But does he truly disagree with Baker, or is he playing a political game so as not to alert a Republican constituency that supports Israel?

Of course, it is reasonable to believe the 2016 candidates as they state their support for Israel and disagree with the policy of President Obama. Bush is going to be blunt about Obama’s vindictive policies; Clinton was asked in recent days to say something about it, but for her the politics of picking a battle with Obama over Israel is more complicated. But it is also reasonable to remember that in 2008 Obama was also making statements that sounded, in most cases, highly supportive of Israel. As supportive as Clinton’s, as supportive as Bush’s.

In other words: there is no guarantee that the US-Israel breach will be gone in two years. Ford was succeeded by Carter, and Obama could also be succeeded by a President with whom he could one day jointly write an article about Israel’s policies.

Did you enjoy this article?
You'll love our roundtable.

Editor's Picks

Latest Articles

Print Issue: Got College? | Mar 29, 2024

With the alarming rise in antisemitism across many college campuses, choosing where to apply has become more complicated for Jewish high school seniors. Some are even looking at Israel.

More news and opinions than at a
Shabbat dinner, right in your inbox.

More news and opinions than at a Shabbat dinner, right in your inbox.

More news and opinions than at a Shabbat dinner, right in your inbox.