Iranian New Year 1404: A Year When Nature and Society Cry Out in Protest

The ruling regime in Iran continues its war-mongering policies—fueling the Gaza war to distract from domestic uprisings while supporting proxy forces like the Houthis and Hezbollah. At the same time, mass executions and environmental destruction persist across the country. Under these circumstances, the Iranian year 1404 (according to the solar calendar beginning March 21) will be a year when both nature and society rise in protest.

From Water Shortage to Freedom Shortage

Issa Kalantari, the former Minister of Agriculture, stated in a video: “The entire country’s water is controlled by one person. Due to a lack of foreign currency, water is being exported. Nothing is being done to replenish water resources. We have destroyed the country.” On Sunday, March 9, Mousavi Khansari, Deputy Minister of Energy, made an unprecedented admission: “The greatest crisis facing Greater Tehran is water. The water crisis is complex and has no easy solution.”

He explained that nearly 20 million people in Tehran and its surrounding areas rely on the Latian, Karaj, Lar and Taleqan dams. However, the drastic depletion of these reservoirs has created a deeply concerning situation. He warned that if this trend continues, Iran will face severe water imbalances and widespread shortages this summer.

A regime-affiliated expert has stated that by 1404, 97% of Iran will be exposed to severe water stress or drought. The agricultural sector is expected to shrink by at least 50%, while 10 million rural residents migrating to urban outskirts will act as ticking time bombs for social unrest.

The Dictator’s War on the Iranian People

Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei has faced a critical decision: abandon the nuclear project or persist with it. So far, he has chosen the latter. With maximum-pressure sanctions in place, Iran’s oil exports are nearing zero. Even secret oil sales to China—at a 60% discount—can no longer prevent the rapid collapse of the rial, which is gradually turning into worthless paper.

In 1400, Iran’s Planning and Budget Organization projected that if sanctions were not lifted, the exchange rate of the dollar would reach 110,000 tomans in 1404 and 285,000 tomans in 1406. At the time of the prediction, the dollar stood at 28,000 tomans.

To continue funding Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other militias, the Iranian dictator refuses to comply with FATF (Financial Action Task Force) regulations. As a result, the pharmaceutical industry is expected to shrink by at least 85%. The shortage of insulin, essential medicines, and cancer drugs will push non-war-related mortality rates to catastrophic levels.

The dictator believes that between the two choices—negotiating or refusing to negotiate—negotiation is the cheaper option for him (but not for the Iranian people) to maintain his rule. However, this approach might lead to Tehran and Isfahan—home to the country’s major nuclear facilities—being engulfed in bombings and the ensuing chaos.

The Convergence of the Middle and Lower Classes

With 150% inflation, the middle class is being pushed below the poverty line, merging with the lower class to form a united opposition bloc against the regime. According to Hamid Asefi, a regime-affiliated analyst, the 90% decrease in foreign travel is fueling the middle class’s suppressed anger and desperation to flee the country—an anger that could explode at any moment.

The 300% increase in bread prices, youth unemployment surpassing 50%, and nationwide power outages—which have already forced the closure of universities, schools, and factories—will only intensify. The situation is deteriorating to a point where even a national mobilization of resources cannot resolve it.

The Collapse Scenario: From Cries to Flames

In 1404, the brutal crackdowns previously limited to “Bloody Fridays” in Sistan and Baluchestan will escalate into a “Bloody Year.”

Students and women—two driving forces behind the protests—will establish unprecedented communication networks. A historic alliance will emerge between marginalized urban dwellers, middle-class protesters, and ethnic minorities. Every violent crackdown will be like pouring gasoline on fire.

A regime-affiliated expert, Hamid Asefi, predicts that in 1404, Iran will witness 300 simultaneous protest points per day. During the 2022 uprising, there were 170 simultaneous protests. The year 1404 will be the year when uprisings align against the regime—a year when, without a doubt, rage will turn into fire.

The Rise of Resistance Units

Thousands of Resistance Units across Iran are ready to turn any spark into a nationwide uprising aimed at toppling the regime. Less than a decade ago, these units were established in every neighborhood, street, and city by the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), the regime’s sworn enemy. Backed by popular support, they have defied countless surveillance cameras and security forces.

In March (Esfand) alone, they carried out up to 60 anti-repression operations across Iran. Against this backdrop, the Iranian dictator’s strategy becomes clearer: Even the risk and cost of nuclear site bombings and the resulting chaos are preferable for him over retreating in negotiations. A nuclear surrender would shatter the Supreme Leader’s authority, causing even his closest inner circle to turn against him.

1404: The Year of Truth

The Iranian year 1404 will mark the end of the 45-year struggle between the Iranian people and the ruling regime. Regardless of whether the Iranian dictator chooses to negotiate with the West (at a faster pace) or refuses to negotiate (at a slower pace), his downfall is inevitable. This article is not a prediction—it is a logical conclusion drawn from 45 years of the regime’s trajectory. History has proven that no government can survive while simultaneously waging wars abroad, destroying its economy, and driving its people into hunger and thirst.

Hamid Enayat is a political scientist, specializing on the topic of Iran, who collaborates with the Iranian democratic opposition (NCRI).