Fighting for the Jewish Vote

News coverage of the recent presidential debate tended to focus on the size of the candidates’ rallies and the potential survival threats to Ohio household pets, but there were also fleeting moments of foreign policy discussion. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump exchanged barbs over the Russia-Ukraine war and very briefly traded blows over the Middle East. Although the candidates didn’t spend much time on Israel, their short back-and-forth may have revealed how the two campaigns are thinking about their fight for the support of Jewish Americans.

Trump repeated his previous charge that Israel will not exist two years from now if Harris is elected. Harris reiterated her support for Israel’s right to defend itself, as she had in her convention speech last month, but interestingly did not repeat her language from that speech about the suffering of the Palestinian people. We can assume that the vice president is not any less committed to humanitarian relief in Gaza than she had been this summer, but the omission was notable nonetheless. 

While it’s possible that her debate message was aimed at winning Jewish voters in key swing states, as discussed in last week’s column, it’s much more likely that this emphasis was part of a broader effort to win over undecided voters who are not yet sold on her candidacy. Since she entered the race in late July, Harris has done a masterful job of consolidating the Democratic base — motivating young people, non-white voters and single women — in a way that Biden had not. This success has pulled her even with Trump in most national and battleground state polls, but now she must reach out to the political center.

So Harris talked in the debate about the Biden Administration’s expansion of domestic oil production, making it clear that she no longer opposes fracking. Her campaign is running ads highlighting her record as a border-state prosecutor and her efforts to crack down on fentanyl and human trafficking. And she went out of her way to tell the audience that she owned a gun.

It is entirely possible that Harris’ omission of the Palestinian people was simply an oversight, or possibly an on-the-spot decision to fit her answer into the prescribed time limit. But it’s equally likely that her decision to emphasize Israel’s self-defense and not mention humanitarian aid was intended for voters who are wary about the marked pro-Palestinian turn of the Democratic left.

It’s equally likely that her decision to emphasize Israel’s self-defense and not mention humanitarian aid was intended for voters who are wary about the marked pro-Palestinian turn of the Democratic left. 

Harris’ brain trust may also be looking at new polling from the respected Pew Research Center that showed their candidate winning the Jewish vote by a margin of 65-35 percent, which would reflect the largest percentage a Republican candidate has won since George H.W. Bush in 1988 and would give Trump a potentially significant benefit in states like Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada, whose Jewish populations could be determinative in November. 

Just as Harris’ level of support among other traditionally Democratic constituencies such as Black and Latino voters are still below traditional partisan norms, she is much more likely to win these highly contested states if she can increase her numbers among Jewish voters between now and Election Day. She is in no realistic danger of losing the Jewish vote, but if the current results in the Pew survey do not change by November, her path to victory becomes much more difficult. 

Harris’ left-leaning record and agenda on domestic policy is a natural fit with the majority of American Jews, who have always trended heavily Democratic. But while issues relating to Israel and the Middle East have historically been less important to Jewish voters, there’s no question that the Gaza conflict has significantly increased their saliency this year. 

Most of the voters she’s trying to reach also support increasing humanitarian assistance to Gaza, so Harris does not lose votes by talking about that objective along with her otherwise decidedly pro-Israel message. But every vote matters in a close election, so Harris may be looking for ways to reassure that slice of the electorate by talking about the war much more selectively than she has in the past.

Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.