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Bibi’s Priority is Still Iran

Which is a bigger threat to Israel:  Palestinian terrorism or Iranian nuclear weapons?
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February 1, 2023
Amir Levy/Getty Images

In the aftermath of last week’s mass murders in the Neveh Yaakov neighborhood of East Jerusalem, a new existential question arises for Benjamin Netanyahu and an Israeli government that already has far more of those types of challenges than it needs.

Which is a bigger threat to Israel:  Palestinian terrorism or Iranian nuclear weapons?

This is admittedly a false choice, as the two dangers are both part of the same larger menace posed by Iran’s leaders. But the exceedingly complicated challenge for Netanyahu is to find a way to prioritize these two separate crises, even if they arise from the same place. The mullahs have been growing increasingly nervous as they watch Israel’s steady progress in building a regional alliance to oppose them. But they now seem to have figured out that the best way to create fissures within the Abraham Accords-plus coalition is not with a frontal counter-offensive but instead by ramping up the level of violence toward Israel emanating from the West Bank and Gaza.

Last Friday’s tragedy is sadly nothing new to the Israeli people: they have faced a horribly heightened level of violence for the last several months. But while the ongoing missile attacks from Gaza are achieving fewer results, the intensity and frequency of terrorist attacks launched from West Bank camps have increased to a point where a third intifada has become a real possibility. But in addition to the grievous loss of life that results from this state-sponsored brutality, another less visible but just as damaging consequence is that it forces the Israeli government to impose more forceful security measures against the inhabitants of the West Bank. This, in turn, creates much greater pressure on Iran’s enemies in the Arab world to distance themselves from Israel.

Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the countries in the Abraham Accords have deprioritized the Palestinian conflict in recent years, partially because they recognize the lack of potential for meaningful progress but more because of the benefits they receive from coordinating with Israel in the name of common regional protection against Iran. But when the violence flares up, it reminds their own populations of their long-held affinity for the Palestinian people and historic animosity toward Israel. Consequently, these shootings make it more difficult for the nations’ leaders to leave the question of Palestinian statehood on the back burner.

Bibi’s message was clear: make noise about the Palestinians if you must, but don’t do anything to jeopardize our role in the alliance against our common enemy, Iran.

So it was no coincidence that Israel launched a drone strike against an Iranian military instillation over the weekend. In addition to compromising Iran’s ability to launch weapons against Israeli targets, the aerial raid also served as an important reminder to the other Middle Eastern countries that the reason this coalition exists in the first place is to rein in Iran. Netanyahu’s message to them was clear: make noise about the Palestinians if you must, but don’t do anything to jeopardize our role in the alliance against our common regional enemy.

Saudi Arabia is the key player in this equation. They have kept a public distance from the Abraham Accords to date, although Netanyahu has made it clear he wants to make this de facto partnership into a publicly acknowledged reality. The ongoing Palestinian violence is likely to prevent any substantive move in this direction on the Saudis’ part, but their quiet cooperation with Israel will probably not be derailed.

Maintaining a unified front against Iran is much more difficult when the Palestinian issue cannot be overlooked. Netanyahu knows that his election was the result of voter fears about threats to their safety and he cannot afford to do anything less than take the strongest possible security precautions to defend the country. But he takes these steps knowing that they weaken the relationship with the allies he needs in his effort to push back against Iran.

The Biden Administration also understands these tricky dynamics. That’s why they issue muted criticism of Netanyahu’s domestic agenda but won’t let those disagreements interfere with their broader geopolitical goals for the region. In the Middle East, your best friends are those with whom your quarrels are annoying and frustrating, but not life-threatening.


Dan Schnur is a Professor at the University of California – Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. Join Dan for his weekly webinar “Politics in the Time of Coronavirus” (www.lawac.org) on Tuesdays at 5 PM.

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