Israel’s New Elections: Three Things to Consider

Yesterday, we said that Israel’s elections might be postponed. Today, Tuesday, after a long and dramatic night in the Knesset, it is clear that there is no delay. On March 23^rd Israel will have its fourth election in two years. In fact, December 24^th, two years ago almost to the day, was when Israel started its first of these four campaigns. Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to roll the dice. And even though it did not work out quite as he wanted – he was not a clear winner in the first, second and third election – he managed to keep his job.

How does he begin the coming election? There are three things to consider:

One: Netanyahu, the charismatic candidate, whose ascent to power was based, in large part, on his personality, is going to be the candidate of “it’s the issues, not the man.” As a leader, he is much less popular that in the past, and there is a sense of fatigue even among some of his voters. But Netanyahu will present to the voters a heavy plate of achievements that would not have happened (his version) without him. Israel is one of the first countries in the world to vaccinate its population. It enjoys normalization with some Arab countries. Its economy, while struggling during the pandemic, is in a relatively stable situation. Netanyahu’s campaign is going to urge the voters to forget whom they like or dislike and focus on “what’s good for Israel”.

Two: There is currently no party that threatens to become a real challenger to Likud when it comes to number of seats. In all polls, Likud leads by a large margin. Its main rival in the last three elections, Blue and White, is down. Do not be surprised if its leaders decide to quit and leave the political world behind them in the coming weeks. So, the danger for Likud is not from one strong rival, it is from a combination of midsize parties whose leaders want him gone. On many issues, they do not reject his policies, they reject him. He is divisive, he is invested in his own trial, he leads a party of people who feel entitled to always be on top. They think it is time for him to go, and for them to take it from here and do what he did – minus the personal deficiencies.

Three: It’s funny that we must remind ourselves of this, but there is a pandemic still going on, there is a significant share of the public who lost their jobs or businesses, there is anxiety and bitterness because of the pandemic and the way it is handled. True, Netanyahu can point to other countries– large, important and efficient– who do no better than Israel during these stressed times. But the public is still displeased with a government that hardly functions. Many Israelis, including rightwing voters who support Netanyahu’s ideology, blame him for this miserable state of affairs.

Does all this mean Netanyahu is in trouble? Yes. Does it mean he is probably gone? Not even close. The campaign merely begins, and the PM knows about campaigning and winning more than anyone in Israel.