The Peace No One Sees Coming

A vast majority of Israeli Jews agree on one thing: “There is no chance for a peace agreement with the Palestinians in the foreseeable future.” Are you surprised? Probably not. You didn’t fall off your chair, right?

How big is this majority of no hope? According to the latest JPPI survey, 84%. That’s up five points from the same question last year. In other words, Israeli Jews were already skeptical about peace. Now, they’re even more so.

And just to be clear: Arab citizens of Israel aren’t exactly optimistic either. Only 31% of them disagree with the statement that “there is no chance” for peace. A quarter of them are undecided. Nearly 10% simply don’t know. The largest group, 38%, actually agree with the Jewish majority: peace isn’t coming — at least not any time soon.

This is, in many ways, an easy question with an easy answer (one might wonder why the percentage of those agreeing with it rose over the past year. Last year wasn’t exactly a time of peace talks either). It’s easy to explain why peace isn’t happening. Much harder to explain is what’s the alternative.

So — what is it?

We asked a follow-up question. Agree or disagree with the statement “ultimately, there is no substitute for a long-term peace agreement with the Palestinians.” If you agree with it, it is kind of saying yes for peace, not now, not soon, but maybe, someday. 

Alas, here, too, skepticism grows. Those who strongly agree with the “no substitute” statement dropped from 29% to 19%. Those who strongly disagree (namely, the ones who apparently think there is a “substitute” for peace with the Palestinians) rose from 38% to 45%. Overall: 55% disagree with the “no substitute” statement. Only 35% agree. So about a third of Israeli Jews are still clinging to the belief that peace, someday, somehow, is the long-term answer to the conflict.

Two-thirds think otherwise — or don’t think at all about the long term. Maybe they’ll change their minds. Maybe they have other ideas: endless conflict, population transfer, third-party deals, one-state solutions … who knows? Creative options abound. Their pros and cons are well known. But maybe most just don’t want to talk about the long term. The short term is pressing enough.

If they aren’t thinking long-term, hopefully someone among Israel’s leaders is. The country is doing many important things right now, aimed at containing threats in the immediate future. It hopes to eliminate some enemies altogether – though we all recognize that this is a slow, uncertain process.

Hezbollah has been hit hard, but it’s still in Lebanon. Total removal? Not likely anytime soon. Iran continues to maneuver, successfully for now, despite pressure from Washington. It relies on China and Russia — who have their own maneuvers going, often unnoticed while the West focuses on Ukraine and Gaza. Hamas hasn’t been uprooted either. Israel is trying — and maybe it will succeed. Maybe. There was some flirtation with the idea of a mass Gazan exodus. It could still happen. But President Trump, it seems, has cooled on that idea. One way or another, the Palestinian issue — with us since the dawn of Zionism — isn’t going away. Not even if Hamas disappears. Not even if 500,000 Gazans decide to leave. 

So what now?

This is a moment to think about long-term goals. Strategic goals. What is Israel’s long-term vision?

Is it full control of Judea, Samaria, and Gaza? Okay, let’s not be afraid of the idea — let’s just think it through. If control comes, will citizenship for all Palestinian residents follow? And if not — how will Israel handle the inevitable criticism from Western democracies, who will (rightly) say this isn’t a democratic policy?

Or perhaps Israel assumes — not unreasonably — that by the time it comes to that, the West won’t care. Maybe democracy itself will be so diminished as a global ideal that the criticism will vanish. Still, even then, millions of Palestinians without rights won’t simply sit quietly. They might rebel. They probably will.

There are, of course, other possible goals: a Jewish-majority state with a minimal Arab population. And there are ways to get there: total Palestinian emigration, or withdrawal from territories with large Palestinian populations, or even population swaps. Israelis know these scenarios. But knowing isn’t deciding. Knowing isn’t choosing a destination and navigating toward it.

Maybe we simply can’t choose. Not yet. Maybe we’ll decide after the war. After we see what the new world order looks like. After we know whether normalization with Saudi Arabia is possible. After we know whether Iran has the bomb. After, and after, and after.

In the meantime, we float. We improvise. We pursue the obvious, immediate goal: security. That’s what we’re doing now. That’s what we do when we — most of us — reject the idea that “there is no substitute for a peace agreement.”

In the meantime, we float. We improvise. We pursue the obvious, immediate goal: security. That’s what we’re doing now. That’s what we do when we — most of us — reject the idea that “there is no substitute for a peace agreement.” When we essentially say that there is a substitute. But we’re not saying what it is. Not to ourselves. Not to anyone.

Something I wrote in Hebrew

Israeli opposition parties’ lack of vision:

There’s another question — no less important — that Israel’s opposition parties need to ask themselves: How does it intend to improve the State of Israel? At the moment, its leaders’ main message is one of preservation. Don’t touch the courts. Don’t replace the Attorney General. Don’t interfere with the heads of the Shin Bet, the IDF, or the civil service. This is an understandable instinct – especially in the face of a coalition charging forward like a camel that drank a barrel of beer… but understandable isn’t the same as productive. This preservationist instinct isn’t a healthy one… Israel is in the midst of a serious crisis – one that demands repair. Repair means change. Yes, even in governance.

A week’s numbers

In the coming months, former PM Naftali Bennett will be the main political target of the coalition. Why? Because he is the one seen as more fitting than Netanyahu to be a PM (Ch12 News poll).

A reader’s response

Gloria A. writes: “Shmuel, are your views representing all Israelis?” My response: No. On a good day, they represent my own views, on a bad day, not even that.

Shmuel Rosner is senior political editor. For more analysis of Israeli and international politics, visit Rosner’s Domain at jewishjournal.com/rosnersdomain.