A Mess Made Messier by Trump’s Ultimatum

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Washington visit was a stunning success. 

Or was it? 

On the one hand, as Shira Efron wrote in The New York Times, “Mr. Trump has given Mr. Netanyahu an invaluable gift: extending a lifeline to his government.” You can call this success. On the other hand, Israel’s many dilemmas, short and long term, were not resolved during or after the visit. So what exactly was achieved at the visit, except for political stability for the coalition, is not yet clear.

The hostage deal is still a weekly psychological torture. The government doesn’t seem to want to complete it – nor capable of telling the country that it doesn’t want to complete it. Hamas is still in power. The government says that’s temporary, but how and when Hamas’ rule ends isn’t clear. To make things more complicated, Israel now toys with the idea of resolving the Gaza conflict by letting Gazans go. But where? There are rumors about “third countries” willing to take them in. There are suggestions – based on shaky foundations – that hundreds of thousands of Gazans are ready to leave. There is loose talk about a Gaza “Riviera.” There’s vague hope, but there’s no plan. 

Government ministers talk about going back to fighting in Gaza to uproot Hamas. At the same time, they also talk about the need for them to pass a coalition-saving measure to release most ultra-Orthodox youngsters from the need to serve in the military. Can they pull off these two seemingly contradictory things at the same time? That’s tricky. And more complication: soon the IDF is supposed to pull out of Lebanon, and at the beginning of March the evacuated residents of northern towns and cities are slated to go back home. Their sense of safety is crucial for Israel’s ability to begin a long process of rebuilding. Then again, the government signals – says! – that the war isn’t yet over. That’s one excuse that was used this week when the government rejected the call to form a national investigative committee for the Oct. 7 debacle. 

No wonder the public is confused. Every video of every released hostage makes the urgency of the deal more vivid. We can see with our own eyes that time is running out if Israel wants these hostages back alive. Every statement or act of every government minister makes it hard to believe that Israel intends to move forward with the deal. So, Israelis are waiting – weirdly – for Donald Trump. He was the one who pressured Israel to make the deal. He was the one who suddenly seemed to change his tune and move from thinking mostly about the hostages to thinking mostly about a riviera. Israelis who want the deal completed understand that Trump is the only powerful-enough person to force Netanyahu’s hand on this issue. Israelis who don’t want the deal completed hope that the ‘Trump is going to put pressure on Israel’ hymn was proved wrong at the visit. 

To further complicate things, Trump has now given Hamas an ultimatum that if all hostages are not released by Saturday noon, “all hell is going to break out.”  Netanyahu’s security cabinet has backed that up, warning that war will resume if all hostages are not released.

To further complicate things, Trump has now given Hamas an ultimatum that if all hostages are not released by Saturday noon, “all hell is going to break out.”  Netanyahu’s security cabinet has backed that up, warning that war will resume if all hostages are not released. 

The bottom line is a long, messy, ambiguous process with no end in sight. But with the unlikely addition of a tempting “day after” dream. In all previous Gaza operations, since the 2005 Israeli pullout, it was clear that a respite would be temporary, that the whistle is for a timeout, not the end of the game. This time Israel is trying to have a war to end all wars – in Gaza. Removing Hamas is one way of possibly achieving such a goal, but Trump provided Israelis with a much grander dream – evacuation. If there’s no enemy in Gaza, there can be no more war in Gaza. 

Such a dream cannot be underestimated as this had been the dream of Israelis since Israel’s birth – and it was the dream its enemies were only rarely willing to address in earnest. Arab nations often agreed reluctantly to have a ceasefire, or a temporary halt of hostilities, with Israel. But no less often these enemies made sure to clarify that a current acceptance of the reality of Israel does not mean a principled recognition of its right to exist safely. One clear proof of this is the insistence of almost all Arab countries to keep “Palestinian refugees” as a group without hope of being absorbed in their new homes. 

Thus, many Israelis suspect that Arab insistence of keeping Gazans in Gaza – rejecting Trump’s bold idea of resettlement off-handedly – is proof of their current reluctance to contribute to a measure that could, at least potentially, put an end to one ongoing war for which there is no other realistic remedy. They suspect that many Arab leaders want Gazans to stay in Gaza, not just because they do not want them as guests or permanent residents in their midst, but also because of their hidden desire to keep some flames of resistance to Israel burning.

Those suspicions will exist regardless of any ultimatums.

Something I wrote in Hebrew

I was trying to explain why Yair Lapid is losing his voters – many of which now seem to prefer the more left-leaning Yair Golan: 

What does Golan have that Lapid doesn’t? Maybe assertiveness, maybe military background, maybe his greater prominence in the legal reform protest, maybe his greater prominence during the events of Oct. 7. Either way, Lapid has a Golan problem, and he will have to address it. This can be done by bringing in generals (there are some who are warming up to the lines). This can be done by changing his tone or identifying a message that plays to Lapid’s advantage (for example, the greater chance that he will be able to sit in a broad government), or by joining forces with another party. 

A week’s numbers

A year ago, Israelis were worried about polarization, bickering, suspicion, social fabric – and they still are (JPPI survey). 

A reader’s response

Mel Rosenzweig writes: “I was astonished and revolted to learn that Israelis can support the transfer of people from their homes.” My response: An Oct. 7 trauma might change your perspective (and I hope you’ll never experience any such thing). 

Shmuel Rosner is senior political editor. For more analysis of Israeli and international politics, visit Rosner’s Domain at jewishjournal.com/rosnersdomain.