One week ago, a Pew survey informed us that 70% of Jews intend to vote for Joe Biden in the Presidential election. Today, the American Jewish Committee released a survey that tells us—well, pretty much the same. According to the AJC, it is not 70% but rather 75% of Jews who intend to vote for Biden (however, such a difference can easily be the result of sampling decisions).
Most Jewish voters believe that Biden will better handle COVID-19, terrorism, anti-Semitism, and Iran. But Israel is an exception: close to half of all Jews surveyed by the AJC believe that Trump is better suited to strengthen the relations with Israel (42%). And among Orthodox Jews, most will be voting for Trump. That is not a surprise. Many of them voted for him four years ago and voted for Mitt Romney in 2012.
Shrewdly, or suspiciously (you decide), the AJC did not ask directly whether Israeli is factored in as a major voting issue. Thus, we don’t know whether the more a voter sees Israel as a major issue, the more likely he or she is to support Trump over Biden. And yet, the crosstabulations provided by the AJC give us more than a hint.
When it comes to Israel-related issues, the contrast between Trump and Biden voters is clear. The more one values Trump on U.S.-Israel relations and on Iran, the more likely he or she is to support the president. The Orthodox, for example, are the only Jews of whom a majority believe that Trump is better on Iran. Among Conservative and Reform Jews, a majority believe that Biden is better. The same is true for U.S.-Israel relations. A majority of Conservative and Reform Jews believe Biden will be better for the relationship. That’s a high bar — and they think Biden will cross it. Orthodox Jews harbor no such hope.
What comes first: does one first need to believe that Trump is better on Iran and only then decide to support him, or do those who support Trump also believe that he is better on Iran? Here is one nugget that could help us decide: When Trump supporters were asked if the president is better than his opponent on “uniting the country,” a majority of them said no. We can take this as proof, or maybe half proof, that Trump supporters are no fools. They don’t support him because they believe that he is better on every single issue. They support him because they see him as better on the things that matter to them.
Trump supporters are no fools. They don’t support him because they believe that he is better on every single issue. They support him because they see him as better on the things that matter to them.
So, although we don’t know for sure how Israel is factored into Jewish Americans’ voting decisions, we can make an educated guess: the crosstabulations tell us that Trump voters, much more so than Biden voters, see the importance in being connected with Israel. More than half of Trump voters see the connection with Israel as very important to their sense of Jewishness; among Biden voters, it is less than half. Among Biden supporters, close to half (46%) see the connection as unimportant; among Trump supporters, it is less than a quarter. Israel can only hope that the gap between Trump and Biden supporters will manifest itself as a gap between Trump and Biden themselves.
