The Dilemma of Iran’s Support for Its Proxies

According to Ham-mihan newspaper on Oct. 28, 2024, Kourosh Ahmadi, an international affairs analyst close to the Iranian regime, stated in an interview: “Tensions [in the Middle East] will continue only if Israel’s policy is to destroy the Axis of Resistance, while Iran seeks to defend it.” Following Israel’s attack on military targets in Iran, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, remarked, “Some believe that refraining from producing certain weapons that provoke arrogant powers, including missiles, can bring security for Iran [read: the Iranian regime]. But this false notion essentially instructs the people and officials to keep the country weak to ensure security.”

The Regime’s Role in Regional Destabilization

On the first day of the war in the Middle East last October, few believed the Iranian regime was the driving force behind the conflict. However, the Iranian opposition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), based on 45 years of experience resisting a regime that masks domestic repression with external wars and crises, declared that the heart of warmongering lies in Tehran.

After the 2022 uprising, the Iranian regime teetered on the edge of collapse and depended on conflict and crisis in the region to survive. It turned to foreign wars to prevent another uprising and avoid being overthrown by the Iranian people and their resistance. In a speech on Oct. 23, referring to Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, and Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, Khamenei said, “If it weren’t for Yahya Sinwar and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the fate of the region would have been different.” Germany’s Foreign Minister stated, “It is absolutely clear that [the Iranian regime] is behind these attacks.” In its 45-year history, this regime has not seen a single moment without war and bloodshed, either in the region or within Iran itself.

Hezbollah’s Role in the Region

Among the Iranian regime’s proxy forces, which have expanded its warmongering, crisis-exporting, and terrorism in the region and even into parts of East Africa, Hezbollah holds a unique position. Hezbollah has been involved in various international assassinations, such as the bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Lebanon and the attack on the Jewish community center in Argentina, and it has also played a critical role in training and coordinating resistance forces for terrorist acts and warfare. Hezbollah took part in the final coordination between Hamas and other forces involved in the Oct. 7 attack, and in Syria it served as the backbone of proxy forces that brutally suppressed the Syrian people, resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Hezbollah has also been heavily involved in drug trafficking, generating substantial revenues while establishing ties with criminal gangs, providing a strategic advantage to the regime.

The Strategic Deadlock of the Iranian Regime

The Iranian regime is compelled to support its proxies and will not abandon them unless in absolute weakness, as war and crisis are essential to the regime’s survival. However, continuing this support risks direct confrontation with Israel, which would inevitably spark popular uprisings. Moreover, the path to a nuclear bomb has been effectively closed, as crossing this red line would bring irreversible consequences.

The Policy of Appeasement Toward the Regime

For the past four decades, the European Union and the U.S. have pursued a appeasement policy of dialogue with the Iranian regime despite the regime’s severe human rights violations, which, according to the U.N. Special Rapporteur’s July 2024 report, amount to genocide and crimes against humanity. This policy has granted the regime international impunity.

Ignoring the regime’s interference and terrorism in the region has led to visible consequences: A significant portion of the Middle East is in flames. With its unchecked terrorism, the regime has turned Europe into part of its battlefield. From June 2018 to June 2024, Iran was responsible for at least 11 attacks in Europe, including an assassination attempt on Professor Alejo Vidal-Quadras, former vice president of the European Parliament.

The religious dictatorship also collaborates with organized crime groups to expand its terrorism, making the regime an immediate threat to European and global security. Continuing this policy leads directly to the crises we are now witnessing in the Middle East.

A Democratic Alternative as the Key to Regional Peace

For over four decades, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) has served as a democratic alternative to the regime. This coalition brings together various political, ideological and religious orientations, united by a shared goal and a rejection of all forms of dictatorship, whether under the Shah or the mullahs.

Several key factors have enabled this resistance to stand firm against the regime and drive change in Iran, including a belief in the separation of state and religion opposing the ruling fundamentalism, long-term resilience at any cost, broad social support, and principles of humanity and equality that strengthen unity among diverse segments of Iranian society, including Shiite and Sunni Muslims, non-Muslims, and oppressed ethnic minorities. This alternative aims to establish a republic based on gender equality and autonomy for ethnic minorities — a country free from executions and torture, and a nonnuclear Iran in peace and solidarity with its neighbors and the entire world.

Hamid Enayat is a political scientist, specializing on the topic of Iran, who collaborates with the Iranian democratic opposition.