What does a guy have to do to get thrown out of nuclear arms negotiations, anyway?
That may be the question that newly-elected Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi asked himself when he officially took office last week. Raisi and his fellow hardliners seem to have been doing everything in their power to convince the Biden Administration that their continued efforts to resurrect the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) talks is a waste of time. But the president’s negotiators continue to persevere—or at least to indicate that they are still ready to persevere if only the Iranians would actually meet with them.
Even before the Iranian team put the meetings on hold shortly after Raisi’s election back in June, they were still refusing to meet with their American counterparts in person, leaving it to European functionaries to engage in shuttle diplomacy between the two nations most central to any potential agreement. It would seem logical that negotiations on such sensitive topics would require a sufficient level of mutual trust so that the two parties could at least be in the same room together. But apparently not.
Raisi’s ascent to the presidency was only one in a series of provocations that may have ended the talks under more normal circumstances. Over the course of his career, Iran’s new president became notorious for his alleged role in the execution of thousands of political prisoners and members of leftist armed groups. (Amnesty International says Raisi must be investigated for “crimes against humanity” and United Nations officials have called for an independent inquiry into his role in the mass deaths.) His election, after a campaign in which his credible opponents were barred from the ballot, resulted in a record-low turnout in which millions of Iranian voters stayed away from the polls in protest.
Shortly after Raisi had been declared the winner, Iranian-backed militia in Iraq and Syria launched attacks on U.S. troops in those countries. The terrorist organizations Hamas and Hezbollah, both trained and financed by Iran’s military, have attacked Israel from the Gaza Strip and Lebanon respectively. None of these acts of aggression have stopped the nuclear negotiations. Even allegations that Tehran had planned to kidnap an American citizen, a Brooklyn-based Iranian American journalist who has criticized the regime, did not deter the Biden Administration’s push for additional talks.
So there was little surprise last week after Iran carried out a fatal drone strike on an Israeli oil tanker off the coast of Oman. Tehran denied that they had anything to do with it. The U.S. and the United Kingdom joined Israel in condemning the attack and cited evidence that supported their allegations. But while Biden Administration officials criticized Iran’s belligerence on one hand, their efforts to re-start the nuclear negotiations have continued apace.
Biden’s advisors have argued from the beginning that cutting off the talks would simply clear the way for Iran to advance its efforts toward nuclear capability. But that is exactly what is happening anyway, and if Raisi appoints his own negotiating team the process will be prolonged even further. And Tehran’s increasing comfort in deploying ballistic weapons and terrorist activity suggests that including those types of activities in a follow-up agreement (let alone a re-negotiated JCPOA) is even less likely than before.
Biden’s advisors have argued from the beginning that cutting off the talks would simply clear the way for Iran to advance its efforts toward nuclear capability. But that is exactly what is happening anyway…
The other possibility is that Biden understands that the likelihood of cajoling Iran’s leaders back into a substantive nuclear agreement is small and that his real purpose for continuing to go through this charade is to demonstrate to the Europeans that he is serious about expending every possible effort to achieve a new deal. As I’ve written about in this space before, Biden’s most important geopolitical goals are far from the Middle East. His primary focus has always been on threats from China and Russia, and he knows that will require the support and cooperation of Western Europe to prevail in those confrontations. So it’s entirely possible that going through the motions with Iran is his way of reassuring the Europeans that they can once again think of the U.S. as reliable allies.
But this pretense cannot continue indefinitely. Every time the Iranian government engages in belligerent activity without being held accountable, they are further emboldened. At a certain point, Biden will need to push back. Regardless of how important he believes a new nuclear agreement to be, enabling a menace like Tehran will only lead to less desirable and more dangerous outcomes.
By Tolerating Iranian Belligerence, Biden Playing With Fire
Dan Schnur
What does a guy have to do to get thrown out of nuclear arms negotiations, anyway?
That may be the question that newly-elected Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi asked himself when he officially took office last week. Raisi and his fellow hardliners seem to have been doing everything in their power to convince the Biden Administration that their continued efforts to resurrect the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) talks is a waste of time. But the president’s negotiators continue to persevere—or at least to indicate that they are still ready to persevere if only the Iranians would actually meet with them.
Even before the Iranian team put the meetings on hold shortly after Raisi’s election back in June, they were still refusing to meet with their American counterparts in person, leaving it to European functionaries to engage in shuttle diplomacy between the two nations most central to any potential agreement. It would seem logical that negotiations on such sensitive topics would require a sufficient level of mutual trust so that the two parties could at least be in the same room together. But apparently not.
Raisi’s ascent to the presidency was only one in a series of provocations that may have ended the talks under more normal circumstances. Over the course of his career, Iran’s new president became notorious for his alleged role in the execution of thousands of political prisoners and members of leftist armed groups. (Amnesty International says Raisi must be investigated for “crimes against humanity” and United Nations officials have called for an independent inquiry into his role in the mass deaths.) His election, after a campaign in which his credible opponents were barred from the ballot, resulted in a record-low turnout in which millions of Iranian voters stayed away from the polls in protest.
Shortly after Raisi had been declared the winner, Iranian-backed militia in Iraq and Syria launched attacks on U.S. troops in those countries. The terrorist organizations Hamas and Hezbollah, both trained and financed by Iran’s military, have attacked Israel from the Gaza Strip and Lebanon respectively. None of these acts of aggression have stopped the nuclear negotiations. Even allegations that Tehran had planned to kidnap an American citizen, a Brooklyn-based Iranian American journalist who has criticized the regime, did not deter the Biden Administration’s push for additional talks.
So there was little surprise last week after Iran carried out a fatal drone strike on an Israeli oil tanker off the coast of Oman. Tehran denied that they had anything to do with it. The U.S. and the United Kingdom joined Israel in condemning the attack and cited evidence that supported their allegations. But while Biden Administration officials criticized Iran’s belligerence on one hand, their efforts to re-start the nuclear negotiations have continued apace.
Biden’s advisors have argued from the beginning that cutting off the talks would simply clear the way for Iran to advance its efforts toward nuclear capability. But that is exactly what is happening anyway, and if Raisi appoints his own negotiating team the process will be prolonged even further. And Tehran’s increasing comfort in deploying ballistic weapons and terrorist activity suggests that including those types of activities in a follow-up agreement (let alone a re-negotiated JCPOA) is even less likely than before.
The other possibility is that Biden understands that the likelihood of cajoling Iran’s leaders back into a substantive nuclear agreement is small and that his real purpose for continuing to go through this charade is to demonstrate to the Europeans that he is serious about expending every possible effort to achieve a new deal. As I’ve written about in this space before, Biden’s most important geopolitical goals are far from the Middle East. His primary focus has always been on threats from China and Russia, and he knows that will require the support and cooperation of Western Europe to prevail in those confrontations. So it’s entirely possible that going through the motions with Iran is his way of reassuring the Europeans that they can once again think of the U.S. as reliable allies.
But this pretense cannot continue indefinitely. Every time the Iranian government engages in belligerent activity without being held accountable, they are further emboldened. At a certain point, Biden will need to push back. Regardless of how important he believes a new nuclear agreement to be, enabling a menace like Tehran will only lead to less desirable and more dangerous outcomes.
Did you enjoy this article?
You'll love our roundtable.
Editor's Picks
Israel and the Internet Wars – A Professional Social Media Review
The Invisible Student: A Tale of Homelessness at UCLA and USC
What Ever Happened to the LA Times?
Who Are the Jews On Joe Biden’s Cabinet?
You’re Not a Bad Jewish Mom If Your Kid Wants Santa Claus to Come to Your House
No Labels: The Group Fighting for the Political Center
Latest Articles
John Ondrasik, Jonah Platt Highlight AJC, ADL Press Briefing at UCLA Hillel
Shabbat Prayer for Our College Students and Ourselves
1,400 Yizkors
Being Good is Easier to Resist than Sweezy vs New Hampshire
A Bisl Torah – Souls Connected
All the Fish in the Sea – A poem for Parsha Acharei Mot
Culture
Welcome Back, Carbs!
A Perfect Pair of Confits
‘The Enemy Beside Me’: Can the Truth of Lithuania Holocaust History Be Told in Lithuania to Lithuanians and By Lithuanians?
A History of a Pivotal Era in Palestine Wins a Top Jewish Book Prize
State Legislator Demands Federal Probe into UCLA’s Failure to Protect Pupils
Assembly member Rick Chavez Zbur said UCLA’s inaction “likely violate” Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964
Chancellor Block Addresses Pro-Palestinian Encampment Removal: “It Needed to Come to an End”
Block said the encampment “became a focal point for serious violence.”
Police Clear Pro-Palestinian Encampment at UCLA
More than 200 protesters were arrested during the late night raid.
The Assault: A Coordinated Attack on America’s Jews and Israel
American Jews are awakening to a new political reality concerning our changing status and position in the United States.
We Need Tactical Training to Combat Campus Antisemitism
We need on-the-ground tactical training for Jewish student activists and leaders if the Jewish community is going to push back against this madness and protect college students.
Hollywood
Spielberg Says Antisemitism Is “No Longer Lurking, But Standing Proud” Like 1930s Germany
Young Actress Juju Brener on Her “Hocus Pocus 2” Role
Behind the Scenes of “Jeopardy!” with Mayim Bialik
Podcasts
Chico Menashe: Asif: Culinary Institute of Israel, Cooking with Chutzpah and The Open Kitchen Project
Beth Lee: OMG Yummy, Exciting Flavors and Preserved Lemons
More news and opinions than at a
Shabbat dinner, right in your inbox.
More news and opinions than at a Shabbat dinner, right in your inbox.