It is a mark as to how much the world has changed over the past few months that Joe Biden’s selection of the first African American woman in history to join a major party ticket was considered to be his safest choice.
Kamala Harris will not have a large impact on the presidential race — which is exactly what Biden wants. While her place on the ticket is of tremendous historical import, it’s difficult to see many swing voters making or changing their decision based on the fact that she is the Democratic vice presidential nominee. This is not meant to diminish Harris: The only two running mates who have significantly impacted a presidential campaign in the last half century are Thomas Eagleton and Sarah Palin, neither of whom did so for the benefit of their party. The last vice presidential selection who helped the ticket was Lyndon Johnson, and a phenomenon that occurs every 60 years can safely be classified as the exception rather than the rule.
Biden is holding a comfortable lead in the polls and has no interest in putting that lead at risk. Given his experience as Barack Obama’s vice president, he understood the obligation of picking someone who would be prepared to assume the responsibilities of the presidency if necessary. He also recognized the critical role that African American voters played in his nomination, the dramatic reconfiguration of the national political landscape in the aftermath of George Floyd’s death, and how the unprecedented selection of a woman of color could motivate a progressive Democratic base that has been less than enthusiastic about supporting an older white man.
Senators and governors historically have been seen as possessing the necessary experience for the presidency, and Harris is currently the only African American woman in the country to hold either job. Naming a qualified white woman such as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan or Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts wouldn’t have done nearly as much to inspire the Democratic base as a woman of color. While the nomination of a Latina or an Asian Pacific candidate would have been equally historic, the recent national debate regarding race relations has created an environment where an African American nominee has much more of a motivational effect. (Harris’ father is from Jamaica; her mother is from India.)
Other African American women who were considered brought risks of their own. Rep. Karen Bass’ positive comments about Fidel Castro would have put Florida out of reach. Putting a candidate like former National Security Advisor Susan Rice, who never has sought elected office, in a national spotlight could have been a significant gamble as well. And Biden would have been hard-pressed to argue that Rep. Val Demings of Florida, Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms of Atlanta and former Georgia state legislator Stacey Abrams had the experience necessary to be one heartbeat from the presidency.
Joe Biden is holding a comfortable lead in the polls and has no interest in putting that lead at risk.
If Biden wanted a candidate with acceptable presidential-level credibility and sufficient motivational capacity, his pool of candidates was exactly one. Harris has raised suspicions among his allies that her future presidential prospects often might come before the needs of a Biden White House. But ambition in a politician is no crime: It might even be a prerequisite. And it would certainly not create the types of potential difficulties on the campaign trail as would the vulnerabilities of his other alternatives.
Biden decided to opt for caution, which is a luxury available to front-runners. But that leads us to one last historical note, which might be the most important of all. The other two women who were vice presidential nominees of a major party — Geraldine Ferraro and Sarah Palin — were chosen by presidential candidates with nothing to lose. Walter Mondale and John McCain were running well behind in their respective campaigns and both were eager to find a way of altering the dynamic of their races.
This makes Harris the first woman in our history to be selected for this spot from a position not of weakness and desperation but of confidence and strength. Regardless of how one plans to vote this fall, that is a breakthrough worth noting and savoring.
Dan Schnur teaches political communications at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine.
