A Fifth Israeli Election?

So, who is winning the Israeli election?

It is 70 days to Election Day in Israel. The fourth election in two years. And you must be wondering who is winning, who is losing and what coalition is expected in April or May, when the dust settles.

The answer is no one. No one is winning, and this means that everybody is losing. So much so that a casual talk about a fifth election has become an everyday occurrence. As if it is normal to have an election without a conclusion. As if it is normal to have not four election cycles in two years but even five in two-and-a-half years.

And yet, this is where we are. To explain why, we need two levels of analysis.

One is the big picture story of Israel. In two years of electioneering, the country hasn’t changed much. Divisions between right and left remain the same, social trends are slower than political twists and turns and demographic developments are known and unchanged. Israel has a certain number of Arab voters; it has a certain number of Haredi voters; it has a certain share of right-wing voters (close to two-thirds of Jews). Religious and traditional voters go right, secular voters go left. The prime minister is dominant and cunning. All of these facts were true two years ago and are true today. If two years ago, no one could form a stable coalition, there is no reason why anyone could form a coalition today.

If no one could form a stable coalition two years ago, there is no reason why anyone could form a coalition today.

The second layer to understanding the election is one of the smaller changes in the political arena. Here, the data we assess are the maneuvers of politicians and the developments in the polls. We know that the main challenger to Likud of the last two years — the Blue and White party — is a mere shadow of its previous self. It no longer presents itself as an alternative to the ruling party. Other parties are striving to become the main alternative — Tikvah Hadasha, led by Gideon Saar, Yamina, led by Naftali Bennett and Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid. We know that these three leaders want to become Prime Minister and that polls give them a projected number of seats significantly lower than the number of seats expected for Likud.

Israel is a country ruled by a coalition of parties, and coalitions are always difficult. They become more difficult when half of the parties, or more, boycott other parties or their leaders. Here is the list:

Parties who refuse to sit under Netanyahu: Blue and White, Yesh Atid, the Israelis, Meretz, Israel Beitenu, the Joint List and Tikvah Hadasha. The just-not-Bibi bloc has a slight majority in the polls — about 63 projected seats. But it cannot form a coalition. Why? Because Tikvah Hadasha and the Joint List will not sit together. And Meretz is much more to the left than Tikvah Hadasha.

There are other options for possible coalitions. The Netanyahu coalition — the classic right-religious coalition — includes Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and the parties of the religious Zionist voters (Naftali Bennett and Bezalel Smotrich of Yamina). This coalition is too small to form a coalition. Less than 60 seats.

What about a coalition of the right, but without Likud? We can imagine two such options. The first is right-wing parties and religious parties: Saar, Bennett and Smotrich’s parties, as well as Shas, UTJ and possibly Israel Beitenu. The only problem with this coalition is that it does not have a majority, and Israel Beitenu’s Avigdor Lieberman will not sit with the ultra-Orthodox parties. It’s also unclear if Smotrich and the Haredi parties are ready to ditch Netanyahu. So this doesn’t seem to be a viable coalition.

The other option is a coalition of the right and the center. Saar and Bennett’s parties, Yesh Atid, the Israelis, Israel Beiteinu and Blue and White. Is such an arrangement possible? The current average of such a coalition is currently close to 61 seats. That’s very tight. Also, it is not clear if Bennett would join such a coalition. Further, there is no agreed-upon leader to this coalition, with at least three contenders for the role. This will make life very difficult for those in charge of determining how a coalition of these parties will function in real life.

That’s it.

These are the options, and as you can see, they are all problematic. That’s why Israelis are casually talking about a fifth election, as if such talk is normal.

Is there a way out of this situation? I can see three:

One — one of the blocs (or at least a leading party) suddenly gets a boost. This will not be easy because of the aforementioned trends.

Two — the parties change their taste after Election Day and agree to join a coalition that wasn’t an option beforehand. This will not be tempting because of the Blue and White example. They tried it, and their reward was elimination as a major political force.

Three — Netanyahu quits. That’s the easiest path to forming a coalition. But Netanyahu doesn’t seem to entertain such an option.