Another week, another polling average. Israel is currently in campaign mode, even if a clear date for the next election is not yet set.
Yaakov Litzman of UTJ resigned. His party is the most stable in the coalition. In fact, it is the most stable of all parties, so his resignation does not really change the political landscape. No one expects any voter to move from UTJ to another party as a result or for UTJ to suddenly become a party of the left.
The weighted average does not yet show it, but in most polls, Yamina, not Yesh Atid, is the second largest party. However, past experience show that Yamina voters tend to be disloyal. The weighted average takes this into account.
In recent polls, Yamina’s Naftali Bennett also is seen as the most fit to be prime minister, following Netanyahu.
The right’s advantage only exists because of the rise of Yamina — an opposition party that we still count as part of the right-religious bloc. The question is, in the future, would Yamina still be part of the bloc, and if so, under what terms?
If Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai forms a new party with former IDF Commander Gadi Eizenkot the polls predict they will receive 13 seats — mostly from Yesh Atid, Blue and White, and a few from Yamina. The bloc situation remains the same.
