The new Israeli coalition is a failure and 7 other political comments

1.

When Israel’s latest elections were announced, the Prime Minister presented a clear reason for the dismissal of the previous government and a clear agenda for the next coalition. He wanted better governance. A more functional and more coherent coalition. He wanted to be able to rule. Take a look at this headline: “Netanyahu: Israel must elect a new, bigger and more stable government”.

The new coalition was just assembled, so a measure of caution is due. Still, his coalition is surely not “bigger”, and with its very narrow 61 seat majority it is hard to see it becoming a more “stable” one.

Netanyahu himself said that “sixty-one is a good number, 61-plus is better”. He does not have the “better” number. That is to say: Netanyahu’s election ploy was a failure.

2.

There is a problem with Netanyahu’s narrow coalition, as I explained the other day. But there is another problem – with his imaginary coalition of “61-plus”: it is not clear that Netanyahu can realistically hope to enlarge it.

Clearly, Avigdor Lieberman, after using such harsh language, does not see himself as a candidate for future membership in the coalition.

For the Labor Party, another possible candidate for a reshuffle of the coalition, the calculation has changed. Since Netanyahu has failed to form a stable coalition, the party could hope for a quick dissolution of the coalition and for another round of elections – and would not necessarily want to save Netanyahu from this fate.

To have more than 61, Netanyahu would have to get someone to join in. It is not clear that there are candidates for this.

3.

So 61 will be the final number, for as long as Netanyahu can hold it together. This will be determined by one thing only: if all parties are happy, and no party sees an opportunity to improve its situation. The haredi parties got what they wanted from Netanyahu, and you can hardly imagine them getting a better deal. Kahlon is a weak link – he is not happy with the company. Bennett is a weak link – he is not happy with the ability of the haredi parties to get more than he did from Netanyahu.

4.

The coalition is also not coherent.

Haredis oppose a “nation-state” bill. But Bennett and his party support it, and many members of Likud support it. Avigdor Lieberman intends to test them all by presenting such a bill and forcing a showdown. If Bennett votes for the bill, the coalition could be in crisis. If he votes against it, the voters could abandon him and move to Lieberman.

Another example: Netanyahu agreed to eliminate or alter the so-called Tzohar bill – a marriage registration bill that the haredis dislike (it weakens their control of Jewish marriages) and the Zionist-Orthodox do like (it weakens ultra-Orthodox control of Jewish marriages). Their representatives in the government are going to have a hard time as they attempt to square the circle and change the law in ways which both camps agree on.

Of course, all these seem like minor issues. But they can easily spoil the atmosphere and make this coalition much worse than its not-great predecessor.

5.

Does the coalition have an agenda?

It has an ambitious Finance Minister – Kahlon. He wants to pass vast reforms and achieve great things for Israel’s housing market and economy. In most cases, when things are reformed someone gets hurt. But in this coalition even one representative of one group that’s unhappy about a proposed reform can kill any initiative. Kahlon could become a frustrated Finance Minister quite quickly, and without him there is no coalition.

6.

A lot of energy is going to be wasted in this coalition on symbolic battles and highly charged debates.

The new Education Minister – Bennett – is likely to scare Israeli parents with ideological initiatives that aim to make Israeli students more patriotic. His initiatives will do little to change Israel, but the tone of debate will be deafening.

Likewise, Bennett’s choice for Justice Minister is going to make a lot of noise, and his party will pretend to be trying to tame Israel’s High Court. Again, the actual outcome is going to pale in comparison to the level of panic and ill-will that it is likely to create.

Likewise, Haredi moves to cancel all the bills that were supposed to lead to a “share of the burden” of military service will be accepted with contempt (one must say: justified contempt). The return of haredis to power and their insistence on overplaying their hand (see my article in Hebrew from this morning about this issue) marks an unwelcome return to unnecessary cultural battles.

In short: this coalition is not good for Israel’s mental health.

7.

It is also not good for yours (assuming most of you are American Jews). The new coalition is going to deal with a lot of the things that ignite Israel-Diaspora tensions – such as conversion and rabbinic rule. Organizations, activists and other people with ideologies or interests different from the ones of the new government are going to ask for your support and paint you a picture of an Israel that is fast becoming a dark nationalistic theocracy. Do yourselves and Israel a favor and don’t be tempted by these messages of gloom. Most of them are unfounded. Most of what the government is going to do is talk. By being on high alert over every appointment or every statement or every initiative you only contribute to a tense atmosphere.

8.

Internationally this coalition is a disaster, of course. No need to elaborate.