Two Election Surprises: Many Jews support Trump, more Israelis support Clinton

On Jews and the GOP

Jonathan Chait highlights the fact that Jewish neoconservatives were quick to jump off the Trump wagon. “Trump has struck at the heart of Jewish neoconservatism at a level deeper than mere doctrine,” he writes. But as the latest Gallup poll shows, the percentage of Jews who still have a positive outlook on Trump is not insignificant: 23% (compared to 52% for Clinton). According to Gallup, “Jewish views are by no means monolithic. A little more than half have a favorable view of Clinton, and nearly a fourth have a favorable view of Trump.” Last week, a survey in Florida showed Clinton leading Trump among Jews in the Sunshine State 66% to 23%.

Are you impressed by this number? The Forward used words such as “sweeping” and “landslide” in its story about the survey. Tablet Magazine used the word “whopping” in its headline. The Times of Israel wrote “crushing.” But I think that the NY Jewish Week's more measured headline – Change Vote? Not for Jews in Sunshine State – is the better one. In fact, I might go even further and put a headline such as: Trump hasn’t lost the Jewish vote.

In other words: the fact that Clinton leads over Trump is hardly a surprise. When Jewish party identification tilts so heavily toward the Democratic Party, you would not expect it to be any other way. If there is a surprise in the two latest Jewish poll numbers, it is that Trump, with all of his problems, still has a chance to collect as many Jewish votes as Mitt Romney collected four years ago, and more votes than John McCain received eight years ago. That is to say: Many “neocons” are GOP Jews – but many GOP Jews are not neocons. 

On Trump’s Chances

But does he still have a chance – can there be a surprise? I keep getting this question from readers and acquaintances, so I will answer it briefly. The answer is, obviously, yes. There can be a surprise. There can also be heavy rain in Tel Aviv in August. But as I was going out yesterday – the last day of August – for a walk in the street, I did not take my umbrella with me. Rain – a surprise – is possible. But it is called a surprise because it rarely happens, and hence it is fair to assume that an umbrella is not necessary and that Trump will not suddenly spring to a victory (but we might still get wet).

On Israel’s Preference

Poll numbers that were sent to me by pollster Menachem Lazar (Panels Politics) prove that this election cycle is unique. For the first time since 2000 it seems as if Israelis tend to prefer the Democratic candidate – Hillary Clinton – over the Republican candidate – Donald Trump. That is to say: after supporting Bush over John Kerry in 2004, John McCain over Barack Obama in 2008, Mitt Romney over Obama in 2012 – they have tilted leftward and support Clinton, at least for now.

Is that surprising? It is, in some way. The majority of Israelis (comprised of Israeli Jews) are more comfortable with the position of mainstream Republicans concerning Israel. They do not care about American domestic policies, they care about American foreign policy – and especially its policy on Israel and the Middle East. During the 2000s, Israelis changed their positions on the Middle East (to make it simple, they moved to the right). Thus, their views are more compatible with those of, say, Marco Rubio than with those of the two-state-solution-agreement-with-Iran Clinton school.

Nevertheless, Trump seems to be a notch above (or below) what Israelis were hoping for. They realize that he is not the typical mainstream GOP candidate that they learned to trust. They also have great measure of appreciation for Clinton because of the Clinton White House years. So – with reluctance, and the understanding that life is not perfect, they settled on the familiar, predictable Clinton, rather than opt for the Trump wild ride. Not that it matters much: Israelis do not vote in American elections. But it does give one a sense that as the world watches America it reacts to this crazy election cycle, to a large degree, the same way Americans do.

Here’s what Israelis thought in previous rounds, and the last poll on Trump and Clinton. You can see all polls on Trump and Clinton in Israel here.