1. Unity? I don’t think so
Yesterday evening, when the exit polls showed a tie (or a near tie) and a possible Netanyahu coalition of 63 or 64 seats – that is to say, a very narrow coalition – one could still see a path to a unity coalition. Today, with the results showing a much wider gap in favor of Likud, and a path to a somewhat wider coalition, a unity government is harder to imagine.
Likud activists were quite clear in expressing their feelings regarding unity last night, when Netanyahu was on stage speaking and they all chanted “we don’t want unity”. Labor Knesset Members also had reservations. They are here “for the long run”, one of them said – namely, let’s stay in the opposition in hope that we can make it next time.
So the President might still want unity. But I don’t think he can achieve such a goal at the moment.
2. Coalition? simple!
Last night – because of the exit polls (I’ll get to the polls later) – we thought that a Netanyahu coalition would have to be very narrow. That’s not exactly the case this morning. He can have a coalition of 66 members (it can still be 70 if the Yachad Party ends up edging in, or 67 if UTJ gets 7 seats and not just 6). Netanyahu still has a problem: he essentially needs every party on the list of wannabe members of the coalition – and every such party can dismantle the coalition for whatever reason. That is, this coalition will only be as strong as its weakest link, and Netanyahu will only be strong if his partners fear another election more than he does.
3. Herzog a winner?
Not quite. Yesterday it seemed as if he achieved something by making Labor a player and gaining seats. Today the picture is a little different. Labor and Hatnua had a combined number of 21 seats in the outgoing Knesset. The Zionist Camp is now at 24. More seats, but not by much. This opens the door for other Labor members to consider a move against Herzog – the Labor Party is known for not being able to stick with a leader for more than one term.
4. Lapid? Loser
Lapid and his Yesh Atid Party lost 8 seats and are going to be an opposition party – and not even the main opposition party. Its members are going to get bored, and they are going to get frustrated when they see the Haredi parties dismantle the laws they were able to pass with the outgoing government. This is going to be a real test for Lapid.
5. Kahlon the king maker?
Yes and no. Netanyahu does not have a coalition without him – but there is no coalition that does not have Netanyahu as its head. So Kahlon can make demands, but his cards are limited. If because of him Israel has to go to the polls again, the voters might not like it. In fact, the cards Kahlon holds are not much better than those held by Avigdor Lieberman. Netanyahu needs both of them – and both of them have no alternative to Netanyahu except for sending Israel to a new election.
6. Bennett’s problem
Naftali Bennet is in trouble. His voters decided to vote for Likud and make sure the camp wins, while others flocked to Eli Yishai and had no impact (unless he passes at the last minute). This could mean a need to rethink the strategy of Habit Hayehudi – it could mean the end of Bennett’s dominance.
7. Livni will not be a minister
To break the record and be a minister representing four different parties (Likud, Kadima, Hatnua, Labor) she’ll need to wait for a Labor victory next time, or to form yet another party – or join yet another party. I wonder if Labor is going to reserve a seat for her for the next round. I bet she wonders about that too.
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