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Trump and Bibi: An Awkward First Dance

Had Trump not imposed his artificial deadline of Jan. 20, he might actually have delivered a good deal. After all, who says Israel must give up hundreds of murderers in return for innocent hostages who have been brutalized for 15 months?
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January 17, 2025
Joe Raedle/Getty Images

President Donald Trump wanted his Ronald Reagan moment. Just as Reagan saw 52 American hostages released from Iran on his Inauguration Day in 1981, Trump wanted hostages released from Gaza before his inauguration on Monday.

But in his zeal to get a big deal to mark his big day, our new president may have bought himself a ticking time bomb.

First, having to pay for hostages by freeing scores of prisoners can hardly be called a good deal. If releasing more than 1,900 Palestinian criminals in return for 33 Israeli hostages, as part of the first phase, is Trump’s definition of a victory, I suspect Hamas can’t wait for more such defeats.

Second, the deal is not really a deal; it’s more of a tease. It’s built on quicksand. Trump assumes the ceasefire will end the war and bring back all the hostages, but does he even realize the “deal” is a fragile three-stage process that leaves the key issues unresolved?  

After the first stage, most hostages (including several Americans) will remain in Hamas hands, at the mercy of further negotiations. The parties will then be trapped by opposite goals: Hamas wants to survive as a military force, while Israel wants to eliminate it. For many Israelis still traumatized by Oct. 7, finishing off Hamas is an existential imperative.

Hamas, meanwhile, has no intention of destroying itself. As Shmuel Rosner writes this week, “[Hamas] will never go through with a deal designed to bring about its own destruction.”

Trump was so intoxicated with his Inauguration deadline, he overlooked those complications and pressured Netanyahu to swallow a poisoned deal. This has created an awkward dance between the two allies. Trump has endorsed a process that ends a war Bibi and most Israelis do not want to end.

Had Trump not imposed his artificial deadline of Jan. 20, he might actually have delivered a good deal. After all, who says Israel must give up hundreds of murderers in return for innocent hostages who have been brutalized for 15 months?

All Trump needed was to wait until he got to the White House. As the most powerful man in the world, he could have applied maximum pressure on Hamas to “release all the hostages … or else.” He could simultaneously have pressured key Hamas allies like Qatar, Iran and Turkey, not to mention encouraged military pressure from Israel.

Force is the only language terrorists understand. In this case, we’re also dealing with terrorists whose very charter calls for the genocide of Jews.

In return for the release of all the hostages, Trump should have offered only one thing to Hamas leaders under military assault from Israel: personal survival. I’m sure they wouldn’t mind safe passage to a luxury hotel in Qatar, especially if the alternative is sure death.

All that said, we can’t underestimate the incredible joy we all felt last Sunday when hostages Romi Gonen, Emily Damari and Doron Steinbrecher returned home after 15 months of Hamas hell. This is what has made this war so heart-wrenching. We could never separate military victory from the rescue of hostages, one of the highest values in Judaism. In a sense, as Michael Oren has argued, both goals were irreconcilable.

Hamas, of course, knows all this. They know Israel’s dilemmas. That’s why they will never give up the remaining hostages unless they absolutely have to. 

Now they’re seeing how far they can exploit that leverage. As they prepare to welcome in jubilation the hundreds of criminals and murderers liberated from Israeli jails, Hamas will surely claim victory, at least in this first round.

They should remember, however, that as much as Trump loves making deals, he also loves Israel — and he hates getting ripped off.

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