Trump’s Craving for Deals

Both Donald Trump’s friends and his foes have learned that keeping up with the president’s changing moods, changing priorities and changing goals is no easy task. So let me do my best to catch us up on Trump and his latest thinking on Israel.

Just about two months ago, I wrote that the president was focused on winning the Nobel Peace Prize he believed had been unfairly denied him during his first term in office. It was already clear to him that ending the Russia-Ukraine war was not going to be nearly as easy as he had envisioned, so he had turned his attention to the Middle East. At that point, his attention seemed to be directed toward an expansion of the Abraham Accords, specifically an agreement between the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Israel that could pave the way for an unprecedented peace in the region.

But the Saudis’ price for such a deal would have required visible progress toward the creation of a Palestinian state, which Trump has now been reminded is well beyond what Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to pay. Hamas continues to reject any plausible ceasefire plan (White House envoy Steve Witkoff displayed unusual public frustration last weekend, complaining that Hamas’ response to his most recent ceasefire and hostage proposal is “totally unacceptable and only takes us backward”). And Israel continues to escalate its military presence in Gaza, making a cessation of violence there seem further away than ever.

But Trump still needs a deal – somewhere. With peace in Ukraine and Gaza both looking increasingly unlikely, the president now seems to be captivated by the prospect of some type of agreement with Iran regarding that country’s nuclear program. During his trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates last month, Trump was told by his hosts that they would support his outreach to Iran (a marked contrast to their strong opposition when Barack Obama began similar efforts back in 2015).

By late last week, Trump was proclaiming that a treaty was only days away and his negotiators followed up on the president’s assertion by presenting a formal proposal to the Iranians last weekend. So it is entirely possible that an agreement could be finalized by the time this column is published. But just hours before Iran received the new terms, United Nations inspectors reported a sizable increase in Iran’s production of enriched uranium, a key component in the making of nuclear weapons. 

Earlier in the week, Iranian leaders had indicated that they might be willing to accept enhanced inspections if a deal with the U.S. was finalized and reiterated their longstanding denials that their country is attempting to develop nuclear weapons. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency has said it could not confirm whether this was still the case because Iran refuses to grant access to senior inspectors and has not answered longstanding questions about its nuclear history.

This history of Iranian evasion and obfuscation is precisely what makes Israel so concerned about Trump’s efforts. A nuclear Iran is, of course, an existential threat to the Jewish state, and Israeli leaders have historically expended great amounts of time and effort to remind their American allies of the mullahs’ history of deception and aggression. But Trump has warned Netanyahu that he would strongly oppose an Israeli military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and has cautioned the Israeli prime minister against taking such steps while the negotiations were still underway.

This is especially frustrating for Netanyahu, who recognizes that there is a small window of opportunity in which Iran’s defenses are unusually vulnerable after Israel’s military strikes last fall. But he also understands the value of his relationship with Trump and his new-found competition for Trump’s affections given how much the American president clearly enjoyed his visit to the Persian Gulf on his latest trip (which did not include a stop in Israel)

Once again, Netanyahu finds himself as a potential obstacle between Trump and his deals. Once again, the political balancing act that both maintains his relationship and protects his country will be no easy feat.

Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.