Bibi and Trump, Take Two

Benjamin Netanyahu has now been reminded – again – that being Donald Trump’s friend can be a double-edged sword.

Netanyahu has lived through both sides of the Trump experience over the last several years, both benefiting from the American’s embrace and struggling under his disdain. Their overlapping beliefs on Middle Eastern geopolitics makes Trump’s support extremely beneficial for Israel’s leader, and the extremely high popularity that Trump enjoys from the Israeli public makes that connection even more valuable. Since Trump returned to office this year, Netanyahu has reaped the benefit of a U.S. president consistently and fervently taking his side. But last week, Netanyahu was confronted with the reality that their interests are similar but not identical, and that Trump can often be an unreliable ally. 

Trump renewed his ultimatum against Hamas last week, promising that there will be “hell to pay” if the remaining hostages are not released. But when American negotiator Adam Boehler met with Hamas representatives without informing the Israelis of his plans, Netanyahu was clearly peeved. The Prime Minister’s office issued a statement notable for its terseness, saying only: “During talks with the U.S., Israel expressed its opinion about the issue of direct talks with Hamas.” 

Netanyahu advisor Ron Dermer also expressed his unhappiness to Boehler in what was clearly an unpleasant and combative conversation. (Boehler mentioned in a television interview that Dermer had “raised some concerns.”) It’s not clear whether the Netanyahu government is more displeased about the U.S. meeting with Hamas or their failure to inform their Israeli counterparts about it. But in either case, Dermer and his boss obviously saw this as a major breach of trust.

It’s not clear whether the Netanyahu government is more displeased about the U.S. meeting with Hamas or their failure to inform their Israeli counterparts about it. But in either case, Dermer and his boss obviously saw this as a major breach of trust.

Boehler dismissed the imbroglio as a miscommunication between friends, saying that he understands why the Israelis were upset, but “at the same time, we’re the United States. We’re not an agent of Israel. We have specific interests at play.” He also indicated that such conversations were likely to continue despite Netanyahu’s objection. (“You never know. Sometimes, you’re in the area and you drop by.”)

Boehler’s comments are a stark reminder that while Israel and U.S. interests track closely, there are important differences that will become more visible and less avoidable in the coming months. The challenges of the hostage negotiations and wind-down of the Gaza war are relatively straightforward compared to the potential disagreements that the two partners will face when it comes time for Israel to normalize its relations with Saudi Arabia. Since October 7, the Saudis have considerably raised their price for such an agreement, vowing that they will only sign off once Israel is willing to support the creation of a Palestinian state. 

Boehler may have been hinting at another way for the U.S. to bridge the gap between the Saudis and Israelis when he indicated that the U.S. would be willing to team up with Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear program. The American negotiator recalled Trump’s authorization of the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani and said, “It’s not so hard for us to partner with Israel and take out that nuclear capability, which we probably should do.”

These comments could certainly represent a message to the leaders of both countries (and to the Palestinians and Iran) that while Trump’s recent comments about negotiating with Iran are legitimate, the president is willing to not only green-light an Israeli attack on Iran but to involve the U.S. military as well. That would allow a much greater penetration of missiles against Iran’s best protected facilities, and would presumably satisfy Saudi Arabia’s leaders so they would no longer maintain their current insistence for a two-state solution. That’s a long and complicated road ahead for even the most trusting of partners to navigate together, and both Trump and Netanyahu have no shortage of reasons to doubt the reliability of the other. 

In the 1980s, when two other world leaders were deciding whether to commit to potentially risky negotiations over mutual nuclear disarmament, Ronald Reagan cited an old Russian proverb to Mikhail Gorbachev. The words “trust but verify” should still resonate today, both in Israel and America.

Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.