Looking Beyond the War

The Gaza war is barely a month old and it’s impossible to guess how long it will last. Biden Administration officials have begun warning their Israeli counterparts that worldwide pressure will shorten the time window in which the current military offensive can continue, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear repeatedly that there will be no ceasefire until all of the hostages have been returned. So this is not going to end anytime soon.

There are three unanswered questions of immense importance that will define what Israel will look like after the war — militarily, politically and internationally. 

Discussing what happens after a war ends so shortly after it has begun often seems premature. But there are three unanswered questions of immense importance that will define what Israel will look like after the war — militarily, politically and internationally. Beginning to consider those questions now at this seemingly early stage may prepare us better for what comes next. 

Already the most publicly debated of these three questions is the fate of Gaza. No one wants responsibility over this territory once Hamas is gone. When Netanyahu speaks of an ongoing Israeli security presence there, he clearly has little enthusiasm for an ongoing military or oversight role. But he also recognizes that without a credible governance structure in place, the region will continue to be a launching pad for future terrorist attacks. Egypt, Jordan and other Arab nations have all exhibited little interest in filling that role, and a United Nations-type multinational force would be a sitting duck for any of the Iranian-backed guerillas that would occupy that territory. There has been some conversation about the Palestinian Authority stepping in, but that corruption-ridden organization lacks the credibility to effectively administer Gaza and would need to be part of a broader collaborative effort.

So who will run Gaza? Israel doesn’t want the job. But unless some type of pan-Arab coalition steps up, Israeli troops will be there for a long, long time – to the detriment of people on both sides of the line.

The second and most clear-cut question relates to Israeli domestic politics, more specifically what the nation’s government will look like after the war. It’s much less likely that future will include Netanyahu: More than 70% of Israelis now want to see him gone. It’s almost impossible to see the voters turning leftward in this environment, but a center-right government that looks a lot like a traditional Likud coalition seems like a natural next step for a wary electorate. Take away Bibi’s ultra-right allies, replace them with the national security leaders who left over Netanyahu’s legal entanglements, and the result is less precarious version of the Bennett-Lapid-Gantz team that briefly led the nation until the last election.

Netanyahu has brilliantly leveraged safety and security issues for his entire career, but Israelis see him as responsible for the current crisis. He will be replaced once the war is over – if not before.

Finally, let’s examine the future of the relationship between Israel and the Jewish community here in the United States. Jewish voters in this country have long prioritized domestic cultural issues such as abortion, guns and marriage equality over Israel and the Middle East. But now that we have been shaken out of our collective complacency, both in terms of Israel’s vulnerability to terrorist violence and our own exposure to the hostility of so many of our fellow Americans, it’s worth asking whether the Jewish state will again become more important to our political decisions.

Neither party is a natural home for us right now. For the last several weeks, we have seen the worst type of antisemitic ugliness emanating from self-described progressives on the extreme political left. We already know that the nativism of equally extreme ultra-conservatives drives similar hatred from the far right. The vast majority of Americans reject both those who shout “from the river to the sea” and those who proclaim that “Jews will not replace us.” But neither party has done a satisfactory job of confronting their own zealots.

These questions can’t be answered while the bullets are still flying. But the sooner we begin those conversations, the better prepared we will be when that time does come.

Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.