A Clear Guide to Israel’s Messy Coalitions

Maybe there will be a coalition. Maybe Israel is headed for another round of elections in August or September. Maybe the weeks of political maneuvering ahead of us are all a waste of time — in fact, this is more than a “maybe;” this is a high probability. And yet, there are other options, and I will lay them out here, numbers and all, for you to easily understand.

Religious Right + Deserters

This could be a coalition headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It will include his “natural partners”: his own party, Likud (30 seats); the two Haredi parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism (9 + 7); and the hardcore right Religious Zionist party (6).

The trickier part is that Netanyahu needs the Yamina party (7 seats), headed by Naftali Bennett, to form such a coalition. Bennett is uncommitted. Prior to the election, he presented himself as an alternative to Bibi and still thinks it’s time for the PM to go.

But even if Bennett decides that there is no better path for him to pursue, that is still not enough. Look at the math: 30+9+7+7+6=59. Two more members of Knesset are needed. Netanyahu will search for them in other parties. Are there members of Blue and White that could switch? Or maybe members of the disappointing New Hope? If he can find two deserters — and promise them the moon — then the PM will have a coalition.

Is it likely? Not very likely, because emotions run high and deserters will be treated accordingly. And Bennett might have better options.

Religious Right + Raam

This is the most interesting option, which would include the combination of the previous coalition (59), but instead of adding two deserters, the Islamist Raam Party (4 seats) would complete a coalition of 63 members.

There are obstacles to such coalition. Raam is a conservative party, and on many social issues it can easily agree with ultra-Orthodox parties (no to gay rights, yes to religion as a political guide). On the other hand, it is an Arab party with ties to Islamist movements such as Hamas. The hardcore rightists, those of Religious Zionism and maybe also those of Yamina, do not seem comfortable with the idea of partnering, or even relying, on Raam. Still, Netanyahu will push them hard: It is either this or the “left”; it is either this or a fifth election.

Is it likely? Maybe as a minority coalition, with Raam supporting from the outside. If this happens, it will be a weird result to a dramatically close election.

The picture is clear, complications are many.

Religious Right + Center

This coalition would exclude Likud and Netanyahu. The “right” includes Yamina (7) and New Hope (6). The religious right features the two Haredi parties (9+7). The center comprises Blue and White (8), Yesh Atid (17) and possibly Labor (7, as a leftist addition). Numbers: 17+9+8+7+7+7+6=61.

But there are many difficulties with such a coalition. The Haredi parties are sticking with Netanyahu for now. They’d have to be convinced to ally with strongly secular parties such as Yesh Atid. Also, there is the question of who will be prime minister. Yair Lapid has the most seats (17) but both Bennett of Yamina, Gideon Saar of New Hope and the Haredi parties will not sit under him. They want a right-wing religious government, even though many members come from the center-left (Yesh Atid and Blue and White).

Yes, this is chutzpah, but also acknowledgment of political reality. Lapid has no coalition. Bennett might have one. The deal between them could be simple: Get Bibi out of the PM’s office — your high priority — in exchange for support of a government dominated by the religious right.

Is it likely? In theory it’s possible, but in real life, political leaders have their egos and their constituencies. The Haredi voters want Netanyahu, Bennett is still on the fence, Lapid can’t believe Bennett’s nerve (and his voters begin to grumble), Benny Gantz of Blue and White could benefit from a fifth election. In short, Gideon Saar is the only PM candidate that could make this coalition happen. But the more likely scenario is that this coalition will not happen.

No Bibi Coalition

57 members of Knesset belong to parties who vowed not to sit in a Netanyahu coalition. These include members of the centrist Yesh Atid (17), centrist Blue and White (8), leftist Labor (7), ultra-secular and Russian Israel Beitenu (7), the Arab Joint List (6), rightist New Hope (6) and leftist Meretz (6). 17+8+7+7+6+6+4=57. Add Islamist Raam (4), and you have a coalition. A coalition with one mission to complete: Get Netanyahu out of the PM’s office and hope for the best, because on most other matters, there is not much that connects Saar and Ayman Oded (of the Joint list), not much that ties Avigdor Lieberman (Israel Beiteinu) and Mansour Abbas (Raam). Ideologically speaking, this coalition, presumably under Lapid as the PM, is ridiculous. But the Bibi factor is the reason why Israel goes to the polls time and again. A year of such a messy mosaic is a possible cure for at least this one disease.

Is it likely? No. It is true that ideology doesn’t play as much of a role in Israeli politics as it used to. And yet, I can’t see Saar sitting with the Joint List in one coalition. And besides, Raam has not hinted that it would join such a coalition. Maybe a partnership with Netanyahu seems more appealing.  

Other possibilities

We can mix and match some other options that could get us to 61, such as a Bennett coalition that includes the Zionist Religious party (67). But it’s hard to imagine Labor accepting such a partnership. Another option is a Netanyahu coalition with Blue and White, again, to prevent a fifth election (the likelihood of Gantz accepting such an offer is slim to nonexistent). Perhaps Saar and Bennett will partner with Likud, forcing Bibi out for a year and having Bennett serving as the PM during the first term. It’s hard to see Netanyahu going for this option rather than having a fifth election and staying in power during another roll of the dice.

The picture is clear, complications are many. A sober politician is working hard to form a coalition while also strategizing for the next election. The first item on his planning board: how to make sure that when a new election is called, somebody else will be blamed for the miserable outcome.