Trump’s Fragile Gazan Truce

The ceasefire that went into effect on Friday between Israel and Hamas, and the hostage release that took place on Monday—and the still uncertain regional peace the ceasefire may portend—is a monumental achievement from an American president not known for diplomacy. It should have garnered Donald Trump the Nobel Peace Prize. Begrudge all you wish, but he has had a hand in neutralizing eight wars under his watch.

Barack Obama received his Nobel before he spent a single day in the Oval Office. The Norwegian Nobel Committee was very impressed that he had written a book about himself, and another about his father—neither of which had anything to do with world peace. Wars raged all throughout his presidency while he retracted invisible red lines and America withdrew from foreign affairs.

Obviously, they graded on a curve.

The diplomacy that resulted in an end to the war in Gaza began with a massive showing of Israeli military might, and a robust return of American Exceptionalism—which fell out of favor during the Obama and Joe Biden administrations.

Strategic partners materialized. A consortium of Arab and Muslim nations, once implacable in their hatred of the West, and especially Israel, suddenly warmed to more Abraham Accord feelings. The United Nations, with its anti-Israel obsessions, was not invited to join. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey, Qatar and Egypt were called upon to pressure Hamas and assent to Trump’s peace initiative.

What swayed them? Israel’s Defense Forces routed Hamas and Islamic Jihad and literally blew the heads off Hezbollah leaders. Bombing Gaza until it possessed the same topography as Mars left a lasting impression, too.

With America’s assistance, Israel calmed the region’s trepidations about a nuclear Iran. The Islamic regime normally relied on neighboring terror groups to do its actual fighting. Israel placed a pox on all of Iran’s proxies.

Israel’s various military maneuvers and covert operations will be studied for centuries. Terrorists were killed in their sleep—while under the protection of Iran and Qatar! Qatar came to realize that allowing Hamas’ leadership to luxuriate in its five-star hotels came at the cost of Israel’s all but certain retaliation.

Nations that once refused to recognize Israel’s right to exist began to question whether solidarity with Palestinians made sense anymore. The depravity of October 7 sickened them, even if they failed to say so publicly. Meanwhile, a forceful and determined United States president made his intentions clear by choosing sides, setting expectations, presenting a 20-point plan, and calling for a Summit in Sharm el-Sheikh.

Many believe these nations came together because of the mounting Palestinian death toll. Not likely. The entire region is long accustomed to seeing dead Arabs—far more than the casualties of war in Gaza. It was unabashed strength, not pity, that mobilized them. Trump summoned them; Israel’s thrashing of its enemies terrified them.

Trump met with the families of hostages, addressed the Knesset, and lapped up all that Israeli love. The Summit will make for a nice photo-op, but don’t expect much more. There are too many obstacles undermining the prospects for a lasting peace.

Trump mainly achieved a truce, a hostage-prisoner exchange, and a tentative Israeli withdrawal. Twenty hostages still believed to be alive have now been returned. Of the 26 thought to be dead, their bodies were expected to be returned. The remains of two additional Israelis, one an IDF soldier that Hamas has been ghoulishly preserving since 2014, may be returned, as well.

But so far, only four have been reclaimed. Israeli intelligence had believed that 10 to 15 bodies will never make it back to Israel. This is an ominous sign.

Meanwhile, Israel will release 250 convicted Palestinian killers, along with an additional 1,700 Hamas terrorists captured during this war. In an earlier exchange, Israel had already freed 2,000 terrorists. Israelis know the risks of such lopsided bargains. Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind behind the October 7, 2023 massacre, was released along with 1,000 of his henchmen back in 2011.

None are expected to take up careers in high tech or humanitarian relief. Terrorism is their chosen profession. Jihad their destiny. Martyrdom, a sacred calling.

This peace plan contemplates that Hamas will demilitarize and accept amnesty in return for departing Gaza—for good. Under no circumstance are they permitted to govern Gaza again. The peace plan also envisions that the entirety of the Palestinian population will deradicalize.

Good luck with that. Hamas was not a party to these negotiations. Their bloody signatures will not appear on any official peace treaty—nor could their bond ever be trusted. They have already hinted that they regard the plan as a mere proposal requiring further negotiation. With Israel already in the throes of withdrawing from the enclave, who will ensure that Hamas is stripped of its munitions?

Hamas is not going away easily, even if some leave. The Muslim Brotherhood’s lasting influence over the hearts and minds of Gazan society is ironclad.

Hamas is not going away easily, even if some leave. The Muslim Brotherhood’s lasting influence over the hearts and minds of Gazan society is ironclad.

The Gazan people, until very recently, remained infatuated with Hamas. And they remain delirious from the October 7 bloodbath. The Palestinian Authority, by contrast, is wildly unpopular in both the West Bank and Gaza. Yet, it is the PA that this peace plan envisions as the ultimate governing authority of the Palestinian people.

It calls for a technocratic Palestinian committee to run Gaza. Are there Palestinians, anywhere, with a demonstrated flare for municipal services that doesn’t include paying bounties to terrorists and skimming the proceeds?

Are there Palestinians, anywhere, with a demonstrated flare for municipal services that doesn’t include paying bounties to terrorists and skimming the proceeds?

As for the “international stabilization force,” assigned the task of ensuring that Gaza does not fall into the hands of jihadists, which countries will be able to instill confidence that Israel’s border with Gaza will be secure?

Lastly, the plan assumes that Israel will one day fully withdraw its military from Gaza. But given the immense trauma that ensued from October 7, culminating in the longest war in Israel’s history, trusting their neighbors is going to be a tough sell.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised Israelis that the war will continue until Hamas terrorists are no longer among the living. This unfinished business angered the hardliners in his coalition government. But he wisely knew not to jeopardize Trump’s shaky Middle East triumph.

As for deradicalizing Palestinians, after World War II, the people of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan did not instantly renounce their loyalties to Hitler and Hirohito. Re-education takes time. Generations of Palestinians, starting from the womb, have been taught to kill Jews and destroy Israel. It may never get unlearned.

A gesture of repentance and regret might help. But has anyone heard: “We are mortified by the mass rapes of your teenage girls and the torching of your infants, all done in our name”?

On the contrary. The day when the ceasefire was announced, Gazans were chanting, “Khaybar, Khaybar, ya yahud!”—translation, “Oh Jews, Gazans will finish you soon.”

Does that sound like a people chastened and ripe for deradicalization? The destruction of the Jewish state has been a generational struggle with millennial patience. The global pro-Hamas protesters were of the same mindset. Such murderous objectives don’t just dissipate upon request.

Trump has brought a lull in the fighting and a measure of relief. But one person’s truce is another’s recharging of rage.