Rosner’s Domain | Why There Might Be Elections

Let’s begin with the default: there will probably be no elections in Israel. At least not soon. For elections to happen, someone within the coalition must believe they have something to gain from them. A glance at the average polling numbers reveals a simple truth: no one in the current coalition has anything to gain. Unless, of course, the pleasure Itamar Ben-Gvir might derive from Bezalel Smotrich failing to cross the electoral threshold outweighs his aversion to opposition life. Spoiler: it doesn’t.

Most of all, the Haredi parties have nothing to gain. And yet, they are the ones currently threatening to pull out of the coalition, because of its failure to pass a new draft law that exempts young Haredim from military service. As this column goes to print, some of them are still committed to voting for new election – the initial, preliminary vote that is on the table being more a warning sign than the final word. But they have a problem: no future coalition that is likely to emerge of a new election seems likely to grant them more generous terms than this one. And so a question arises: why are they still acting as if they might dismantle the coalition? The answers are many. All worth examining.

Explanation One: Pressure. This is the most straightforward explanation. The Haredim are bluffing. All the noise and the turmoil are part of a last-ditch attempt to twist the arm of coalition holdouts — specifically, Chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Yuli Edelstein. The idea is to push through a version of the draft exemption bill the Haredim can live with. If this is the correct read, there won’t be elections. Someone will blink first. Either the Haredim will compromise, or the coalition MK’s who oppose a soft bill will fold – and business will go on as usual.

Explanation Two: Psychology. Here, the game is no longer just political — it’s emotional. Haredi leaders are prepared to leap into the abyss if that’s what it takes to avoid being blamed for what’s coming: the end of automatic exemptions, the criminalization of deserters. Haredi commentators have been insisting this is no longer a pressure tactic. And indeed, there’s no political logic to the Haredi behavior unless they’re serious. If this explanation holds, elections are likely — unless someone else blinks.

Explanation Three: Deterrence. This is similar to the previous explanation, but less about fear and more about precedent. The Haredim want to establish a deterrent. Let every future prime minister know: when the ultra-Orthodox say they’ll walk away, they walk away. This isn’t about this coalition; it’s about the next one, and the one after that.

Explanation Four: Despair. Perhaps the Haredim have already concluded that nothing good will come out of this coalition — at least for them. What they failed to gain during the government’s period of strength is now likely out of reach as the coalition weakens in the run-up to the next election. As the parties begin to focus more on electoral positioning than on coalition management, agendas will harden. Leaders will become afraid to alienate their base, unwilling to tie their political futures to unpopular policies — like a draft exemption law. If the Haredi leadership concludes that this coalition is a lost cause, then the question of “political logic” is moot. Whether elections come now or in a year, they’ll head into them with zero legislative accomplishments on the draft issue. In that case, it may actually serve their interests to show just how serious they are (see: deterrence), even if they know the outcome won’t be favorable.

Explanation Five: Ending the War. This one requires a bit of political imagination. The Haredim understand that as long as the war continues, it will be politically and morally difficult to exempt their youth from service. Therefore, if they want to ease public pressure, they need the war to end. Elections might help. A new coalition might be more inclined to seek a ceasefire. If reservists return to their homes, if normal life resumes, if the national mood softens — then maybe, just maybe, the public will be more forgiving on the draft issue. Maybe then, a compromise will be possible.

Explanation Six: Disassociation. The Haredim know the rules of the game are changing. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon. They understand that the days of blanket exemptions and economic perks are numbered. Their goal now is to be able to say: we fought it to the end. We gave it everything. We even gave up power. If the rules are about to be rewritten, they’d rather not have their fingerprints on the pen. The threat of walking away is a kind of declaration: we’re no longer partners in this. Do what you want — we’re out.

Something I wrote in Hebrew

As Israel talks about drafting the Haredim to the military, people ask, well, why not the Arabs too? Here’s what I wrote:

The enlistment of Arab citizens is not currently on the agenda for three reasons.

First – there is no court ruling requiring it, unlike the case with the enlistment of Haredim, which is mandated by a legal decision. Second – there is no emergency situation to which Arab enlistment could realistically contribute. If Haredim are drafted, they can relatively quickly serve as combat soldiers and ease the burden on IDF units. If Arab citizens are drafted, it would require a longer process and involve arrangements that are unlikely to provide meaningful relief for the IDF in the short term (assuming few would support the immediate deployment of newly conscripted battalions from Arab towns to maneuver in Gaza). The third reason is that the Jewish-Israeli majority sees Haredim as a group that belongs — however awkwardly — within the broader framework of Jewish-Zionist enterprise. It does not harbor the same suspicions toward them as it does toward Arab citizens. The Haredim seek to be distinct — but the Jewish majority embraces them nonetheless. 

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Shmuel Rosner is senior political editor. For more analysis of Israeli and international politics, visit Rosner’s Domain at jewishjournal.com/rosnersdomain.