Israel’s Political Turmoil: Still Not Too Late for Compromise

Two days ago, I wrote a longer article on the Blue and White party and why they decided to vote against the government in favor of new elections. This piece is more of an update, as the vote is today, and its aftermath begins tomorrow.

The Vote

The Knesset is voting today on a bill that calls for new elections. This is a preliminary vote. A Knesset committee has to debate it and set a date for the next election. This means that there is still time to prevent new elections. It also means that we do not yet know when the election is going to happen. It can occur between 90 days and half a year after the final vote (March to June).

The Timetable

The Knesset can decide on a date more convenient for everyone or wait until the end of December. If by the end of December the 2020 budget does not pass (Blue and White are not likely to vote for it if Prime Minister Netanyahu doesn’t give them something big in return), the Knesset automatically dissolves, and a new election will be scheduled for March 23.

The Politics

Blue and White leader Benny Gantz made an aggressive speech on Tuesday but did not close the door on compromise. This will not be easy to achieve, as Gantz wants Netanyahu to fix any loophole that can let Netanyahu dismantle the government before Gantz is made prime minister in the pre-agreed-upon rotation. No one assumes that Netanyahu is ready to do such a thing. Either Netanyahu or Gantz must accept a compromise that is less than ideal, and at this point, they seem not to be in a mood for that.

Either Netanyahu or Gantz must accept a compromise that is less than ideal, and at this point, they seem not to be in a mood for that.

The Joint List

The most interesting development today is a decision made by the Islamic faction Raam not to vote for a new election. The unlikely political romance between the head of Raam, Mansour Abbas, and Netanyahu has been the talk of the town for quite some time. Abbas’ strategy, as an Arab Knesset member, is as follows: “most of the time, the Arab parties automatically are part of the Left… this approach is mistaken, and … we need to reposition ourselves toward the entire Israeli political spectrum.” Abbas’ decision has one certain outcome and one less likely outcome: The likely outcome is the end of the Arab Joint List because Abbas will run separately. The unlikely outcome is for Netanyahu to find 61 Knesset members that agree to oppose a new election. Abbas does not have enough votes to get Netanyahu there, but he does get him closer to such a goal. Netanyahu needs three to four more votes.

The Crucial Matter

Israel is about to have a fourth election in two years. This is all because of one man — Netanyahu. Love him or hate him, it is clear that had he not been there, politics would be simpler.