August 19, 2019

Israel’s Election Handbook: Will Golan Heights Recognition Boost Netanyahu?

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chats with Israeli soldiers at a military outpost during a visit to Mount Hermon in the Golan Heights over looking the Israel-Syria border February 4, 2015. REUTERS/Baz Ratner/File Photo

We call this format a Timesaver Guide to Israel’s Coming Elections. This will be a usual feature on Rosner’s Domain until April 9. We hope to make it short, factual, devoid of election hype, and of he-said-she-said no news, unimportant inside baseball gossip.

Bottom Line

The United States gets ready to recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

Main News

Donald Trump: “After 52 years it is time for the United States to fully recognize Israel’s Sovereignty over the Golan Heights”.

Benjamin Netanyahu: “President Trump has just made history”.

Kahol Lavan party, Netanyahu’s political rivals: “a dream come true”.

Netanyahu, Trump to meet next week.

Netanyahu, Benny Gantz prepare to speak at AIPAC.

Growing demand to investigate whether Netanyahu profited off Israel’s submarine purchases.

Developments to Watch

Material: Is recognition of Golan coming next week? Will Netanyahu get even more boost from Trump – for example, by bringing spy Jonathan Pollard to Israel?

Political: Will the polls of early next week reflect public appreciation of Netanyahu following the Trump move?

Legal: Will there be a decision by the Attorney General to reopen the case of Netanyahu’s involvement in the submarine case – or an announcement by him that there is no new information that merits investigation?

Personal: Campaigns entering the final stage with intensified camp infighting. Labor attacks Kahol Lavan.

The Blocs and Their Meaning

The three graphs we present today deal with the three most crucial political issues today:

  1. Will Kahol Lavan get strong enough to have a claim on forming the next coalition? By their own admission the leaders of this party seek a gap of at least five seats between them and Likud. Gantz spoke earlier this week about getting 40 seats. For now, this is a goal that seems quite far – if the polls are to be believed:

2. The right-religious camp is the key for Netanyahu’s success. He would like to see a camp of more than 60 Members of Knesset telling the President to hand him the job of forming a coalition. Will he have such camp? That depends on the parties you think he can count on. If he can trust all of his former allies, that’s one thing, if some of them, notably Kulanu, entertain other options, that’s another story. Also, the new Zehut Party is a mystery. Its leader, Moshe Feiglin, does not commit himself to Netanyahu. So here, too, there is potential for trouble – from Netanyahu’s viewpoint. The graph bellow counts the seats for coalitions with and without Kulanu and Zehut – based on the averages of polls since March 10.

 

 

3. Which parties might not cross the electoral threshold? One of two that do not cross could throw off all coalition calculations at the very last minute. Note, all parties with an average of a little less or a little more than four seats are in danger. In addition to the parties listed here, in some polls Meretz gets four seats.