If there are no surprises, Benjamin Netanyahu will win: The math is simple. The bloc of religious and right-wing parties has 53 to 55 mandates. Add Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu and there’s your 60-plus bloc. Add Avigdor Lieberman’s Israel Beiteinu and it gets closer to 70. Netanyahu doesn’t have to form a coalition with these parties — but he can. On the other hand, there is no conceivable path that puts Labor’s (the Zionist Camp) Yitzhak Herzog above 60.
The politics of everything but: I find it depressing, but Israel’s politics are about rejections more than choices. In other words, we do not “elect” — we reject. Lieberman won’t sit with Meretz. The Charedis won’t sit with Yair Lapid. Many Labor Knesset members won’t sit with Netanyahu, and Netanyahu says (and I tend not to believe him) that he won’t sit with Herzog and Tzipi Livni. Livni says she won’t sit with Netanyahu or Naftali Bennett. And the voters are no better: These elections are relatively quiet because no camp is enthusiastic about its own candidates — they just dislike other camps even more.
Moshe Kahlon is king-maker: Kahlon did not commit to only a Likud-led coalition, but Netanyahu does not have a coalition without him. So his price is going to be high. Or he can decide to force Netanyahu and Herzog into a unity government. I would not be surprised if he ponders such an option.
Unity is an option: Netanyahu can have a coalition, but one that is going to be hard to manage (every party can easily destabilize it) and even harder to be proud of. He might prefer unity. That is, if Herzog comes in as the junior partner (because Netanyahu does have an option, and Herzog does not), and if Herzog can pull it off with his own party (a big if).
Nothing seems to impress the voters: Look at the polls. They are virtually unchanged since Herzog and Livni joined forces. Likud didn’t go up, Labor didn’t go up, and the blocs each retained their relative power. Corruption stories did change voters’ affiliations. Gossip did not do the trick. Rallies don’t do it. Netanyahu’s big speech did not do it. Talking about the economy doesn’t do much; talking about Iran doesn’t do much either.
Surprises, thus far: The biggest surprise in these elections thus far is Lapid’s dogged battle for survival. He (the Yesh Atid Party) was supposed to be the main casualty of this cycle. But he is doing just fine and threatening to yet again be the surprise of this election. As for post-election prospects, Lapid could be in trouble. If the Charedi parties insist they will not sit with him in the same coalition, Lapid probably is headed to the opposition.
Election Day surprises: Many people are still saying they are undecided, or reluctant, or unenthusiastic, or still waiting for a sign. About one-fifth of all voters — according to recent polls — are still “floating.” These voters could alter the outcome of Election Day. So surprises are possible, such as if the undecided suddenly flock in great numbers to one of the blocs; if they flock to Likud or to the Zionist Camp and make one of these main contenders much larger than the other; if one of the smaller parties — especially rightist Yachad or leftist Meretz — doesn’t cross the electoral threshold and hence further complicates the coalition math; or if Arab-Israelis show up in much greater numbers than in the past and strengthen the left bloc.
Post-Election Day surprises: If not much changes, the post-election negotiation season is going to be much more interesting than election season. But two meaningful surprises could occur in that period that could change the math for the next coalition: If Kahlon decides to go with Herzog (because he dislikes Netanyahu and thinks it is time for him to go), or if the Charedi parties decide to go with Herzog (as revenge for Netanyahu’s deeds with the outgoing coalition).
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