Israelis and Herzog
The big political news coming out of Israel's interesting election cycle is the official announcement that Labor's Herzog and Hatnuah's Livni will be running together. It was expected, it makes sense, and it was nevertheless surprising. Why? Because of Herzog's decision to agree to a rotation arrangement with Livni – if the list wins, and if he becomes Prime Minister, he will serve for two years and then she will serve the other two years.
Of course – there is a low chance that this arrangement will ever materialize. First, they need to win. Then, they need to maintain a coalition for more than two years. And they have to do it without fighting among themselves – that becomes trickier when the actual PM position, rather than an imaginary one, is on the line. Still, Herzog has bet on making that arrangement.
Was it the right bet? The answer seems to depend on one question: will Israelis see this arrangement as a sign of Herzog's weakness, or as a sign of strength?
Let me explain:
Herzog has no macho appeal. This makes some Israelis look at him suspiciously and think that he might not be tough enough for the top job. Moving aside in such a manner to make room for Livni – a woman that has electoral assets but no party and less than four projected mandates in the polls – can reinforce the perception that Herzog is a pushover. Livni, with a gun with no powder, made herself a candidate for Prime Minister. Herzog is the robbed bank manager.
Or it can reinforce a different narrative: that of a group working in harmony to save Israel from another Netanyahu term, and of a man whose ego is under check and who is focused on the more important objective rather than on his own career.
Two narratives: one gets Herzog closer to being Prime Minister (for half a term), the other one makes him a subject for jokes (and let's be honest: many of the jokes will be chauvinistic ones). Israelis can be a tough and cynical crowd, but Herzog chose to be an optimist. An interesting choice and a dangerous one.
Israelis and Obama
The BESA center had a conference about America's standing in the world, and published a survey about the way Israelis view the US. Here's a graph we produced for you to see how Israelis viewed the President's “position toward Israel” in four BESA surveys:
What do we see here? The more years pass, the more Israelis believe that Obama does not have a positive position toward Israel. In other polls we see it in the form of a question on whether Obama is “pro Israel” or “pro Palestinian”. In this case the question does not involve Palestinians. Namely, it is not a comparative question. But the result is pretty much the same. In other words: they are more inclined to suspect that his clashes with the Israeli government stem not from naiveté, misunderstandings, or dislike of specific policies – but rather from a dislike for the state. The lesson for the US President should be clear: if he wants Netanyahu to be replaced (as he surely does) he'd better refrain from publically clashing with Netanyahu in the next three months.
Israelis and the Jewish-state law
The Guttman center of The Israel Democracy Institute published a survey last week from which there is something to learn about the way Israelis see the Jewish-state law. In essence, what you see in the survey are three things: Israelis cherish their democracy – and all claims to the contrary are baseless; they see no “contradiction” between Israel being “Jewish” and “democratic”; and they know that the PM is playing politics with the proposed legislation.
There is a caveat though: 73% of Jewish Israelis do not see a “contradiction”, while 83% of Israeli Arabs do see a contradiction. That gap in perception is the exact reason for which some Israelis would say that Israel has to have such a law (so Israeli Arabs would finally realize that there is no Israel that is not a Jewish state) – and some would argue that Israel should refrain from legislating such a law (so as not to further convince Arab Israelis that the state in which they reside cannot be truly democratic).
Israelis and American Jewry
If the threat of Israel-Diaspora “distancing” is aimed at making Israel alter its policies in ways more accommodating to American Jewish views – then the BESA survey put such hopes to rest. No Israeli is likely to want Israel to change its policies in order to have more Jewish American support – that is, because a vast majority of Israelis are not aware of any problem.
If there is indeed a problem, that is for another time. In the 2014 Jewish Year Book, Saxe, Sasson, and Aronson once again make the case – based on Pew data – that there is “a modest increase in the percentage of Jews by religion who say that they are 'somewhat' or 'very attached' to Israel and that translates to a dramatic increase in the number of individuals who are attached. Currently, more than three-quarters of the JBR population (3.1 million adults) say that they are 'somewhat' or 'very attached' to Israel.” This represents a 40% increase since 2000–2001. So – no problem.
But even if there is a problem, Israel has not heard about it. The BESA pollsters asked to what extent American Jews feel close or distanced from Israel. 6% of Israelis think there is “distance”. 15% say not close nor distant. 79% say close or very close. It is true that more Israelis – 12% – believe that “in the future” American Jews will become more distant. But this is still a fairly small percentage and “the future” is undefined, so they might as well believe this to be a prediction for 2099.
Israelis and Netanyahu
Rosner at the New York Times:
Even Israelis like me, who tend to accept Mr. Netanyahu’s caution and skepticism on peace talks, and his unapologetic insistence on proud nationalism, should wonder about missed opportunities. Chief among these was the missed opportunity of the now-defunct coalition to reshape Israeli society and make it less polarized and more civil.
Full article here.
Israelis and the coming elections
Take a look at our poll-trend tracker and learn what the polls say, and why we should be very careful as we read them. We have the numbers, and the numbers with which to refute the numbers.
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