When it comes to the Democrats and Israel, the 2020 Democratic Convention presents us with a dilemma: Should we trust words when we see contradictions?
The Democratic Party seems to be completely disinterested in foreign affairs in general and in the Middle East in particular. The convention, however, was rich on President Donald Trump and domestic affairs. This tells us something about the mood in America. It also tells us something about political calculations. Talking about other countries is complicated and could be controversial. Talking about Trump is easier and more effective.
There are only two things to consider as we attempt to predict the policies of an incoming Biden administration. The first is the party’s platform which is reasonably measured on Israel and completely off on Iran. As if written in a parallel universe, the Iran platform wishes to restore an outdated agreement with Tehran — as if the country did not advance its capabilities; as if it does not attempt to advance into Syria; as if there was no Beirut blast with Hezbollah munitions; as if Israel and the Emirates did not just announce an alliance whose aim — among other things — is countering Iran.
We also must consider the general message the Biden campaign conveyed during the first night of the convention. Ohio’s 2016 GOP presidential candidate John Kasich was the most effective carrier of this message, which was: “I’m sure there are Republicans and independents who couldn’t imagine crossing over to support a Democrat. They fear Joe may turn sharp left and leave them behind. I don’t believe that, because I know the measure of the man — reasonable, faithful, respectful. And you know, no one pushes Joe around.”
The message is clear. Biden is not a leftist. He will handle America and world affairs in a measured, responsible, realistic fashion. From an Israeli viewpoint, we have a contradiction. If we believe the platform on Iran, there is reason to worry. If we buy the message of moderation, we have less reason to worry.
So what should we believe? Neither. When it comes to foreign affairs, the platform is hardly important. It captures the sentiment of party activists, and Democratic activists are not the most pro-Israel crowd. But the platform is not a good predictor of actual policies. Similarly, convention speeches are not the most reliable. These are campaign propaganda tools, not measured expressions of future policies.
So, what will Biden do on Iran and Israel? I’m not sure he knows. I surely don’t.
