The Times They Are a-Changing

Now that Ukraine and China are back in the headlines, American public and media attention has drifted further away from the war in Gaza. President Trump is certainly not ignoring the Middle East: his representatives have begun negotiations with Iran over that country’s nuclear program, the U.S. military has accelerated its aerial attacks on the Houthi terrorists, and the Justice Department has mounted an aggressive effort to crack down on antisemitism on our college campuses. 

But the war between Israel and Hamas is no longer at the front of political and public debate, so there has been less attention paid to how American voters’ feelings toward Israel may have changed since Hamas’ invasion almost a year-and-a-half ago. We know that progressive anger toward both Trump and Joe Biden has intensified since the Oct. 7 attacks. We know that attitudes about the war have increasingly divided along partisan lines. But how has public opinion here changed toward the Jewish state since the war began?

The Pew Research Center, the most reliable polling source in this country on international matters, has provided an updated snapshot of what the American people think about our long-time Middle Eastern ally. The picture is a decidedly unsettling one.

For the first time ever, more Americans now hold a negative opinion of Israel than a positive one. Their new poll showed that 53% of voters here think unfavorably of the Jewish state, a marked increase from the 42% who held negative attitudes since their last survey on this topic was taken before the war began. Feelings toward Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are even worse, as a majority of Americans (52%) have little or no confidence in Netanyahu to “do the right thing regarding world affairs,” while only 32% voice confidence in him.

It should not be surprising that there is a marked partisan skew to these numbers. More than two-thirds of Democratic respondents expressed their disapproval of Israel (69%), while only 37% of Republicans shared that negative opinion. Democrats were especially virulent in their disapproval of Netanyahu, as only 15 percent support the prime minister. A slim majority of Republicans (51%) express confidence in Netanyahu. This implies that the shift might be temporary and could be reversed when Israel selects a new leader.

But the more surprising results are those broken down by age. There has been clear evidence for some time that young people have been less supportive of Israel than their parents and grandparents. But the Gaza war has complicated the generational divide. While Republicans under 50 are less committed in their support for Israel than older members of the GOP, the breakdown among Democrats is even more troublesome. 

Younger and older Democrats alike have turned more negative toward Israel over this period, but negative views among younger Democrats have grown by 9 points, compared with a 23-point increase among older Democrats. This suggests that the historical memories of Israel’s past that have historically buoyed the Jewish state’s approval ratings among those who recall the Six Day War and the Yom Kippur War no longer carry the same impact with that older generation.

Over the years, Israel’s growing economic and military supremacy have given pause to many progressives who have come to see the Middle East’s one-time brave and stalwart underdog resisting the surrounding Arab nations now instead as an oppressor of its Palestinian neighbors. But those attitudes have been most prevalent among those too young to have experienced Israel’s struggles to survive. The fact that so many older Democrats have become more disillusioned with Israel raises troubling questions about the Jewish state’s long-term political support in this country.

The fact that so many older Democrats have become more disillusioned with Israel raises troubling questions about the Jewish state’s long-term political support in this country.

The war in Gaza will end at some point, either with Hamas’ elimination or a grudging and temporary settlement. But until now, many of us had assumed that Israel would regain its standing in the eyes of the American voters once the fighting had stopped. These poll numbers suggest otherwise. They force us to confront the possibility that Israel’s reputational restoration will require not just time but a considerable amount of work.

Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.