We asked our Israel Factor panel of 10 experts to grade the performance of the Obama administration on several Middle East issues, and we also asked them to briefly explain the grades given. It must be said that the marks were not high. On handling Israeli-Palestinian relations, for example, the administration got an average of 1.88 out of 5 possible points (1 = very bad; 5 = very good). And this was pretty much a unanimous decision – all the panelists, for different reasons, made the same judgment. The Obama administration's Israel-Palestine policy is not a success, and it is not a success because of poor handling by the administration.
Of course, not all panelists have the same ideology, and thus not all the analyses stem from the same origin. One panelist (we do not attribute grades and quotes to specific Israel Factor panelists) concluded that the administration is guilty of “Bad mediation strategies, lack of pressure tools, unrealistic timetables and expectations”. Another one wrote that “too much capital” was “invested in finding a two state solution” (i.e., poor prioritization). But there were also those who believed that the problem was with “too little pressure on Israel” (i.e., not using the proper tools). Or with a lack of understanding of the nature of the negotiating parties: “the Kerry-led negotiations were a hopeless venture to begin with on account of the current Israeli government’s unwillingness to compromise. Eventually, they did more harm than good”.
Whatever the reason, the panel was not impressed with the execution of the effort and was similarly not impressed with other policies. On “working with the Israeli government” the Obama team got an average of 2.33. Only one panelist gave the administration more than a three in that department, while all others thought that there is “misunderstandings on basic issues” and a “clash of personalities”. One panelist made a detailed answer saying that the score is “mixed” due to “support for Israel” during the Gaza operation on the one hand but “reassessment on arms, misguided Kerry mediation initiative, and condemnations of Israel during war” on the other. The backing of the “Turkish/Qatar ceasefire proposal” by John Kerry was mentioned by other panelists as well as a reason for the low grades.
On “dealing with the Gaza war” the panel was, again, unanimous in giving a relatively low score, 2.6, but not in their reason. The most blatant reason from a left leaning panelist was: “Inability to prevent the killing of innocent civilians in Gaza”. On the other side of the spectrum we have “betraying allies, failure to see similarities between Hamas, ISIS, Hezbollah, adopting the bad Qatar – Turkey proposal for a ceasefire, delay of hellfire missiles”. These two panelists gave the administration a 1 and a 2 out of 5. Of course, there is no middle course to be found between these two that can make them half satisfied, so maybe the true failure of the Obama team lays in its inability to devise a coherent policy that would make at least one of them happier.
On “balancing relations with Middle East governments”, the administration got an average of 2.2. No panelists believed the administration deserves more than a score of 3 on that question. The Obama team got its highest score – a still meager 3.11 – on “battling ISIS in Iraq” (the questionnaire was sent back by most panelists before the Obama speech on ISIS). “Failure to recognize the threat, no strategy, too little, too late, too slow”, wrote one of the panelists. “Slow to understand” was a comment made by several panelists. A more merciful judgment said: “No great achievements, but it’s hard to see what the alternatives are, given the immense complexity of the situation and region”. And some of the panelists also recognized a “Growing understanding of the threat”.
The bottom line is poor. In that, the Israel Factor panel has a view not much different from the view of most Israelis and of most Israeli officials. No wonder that when we asked the panel in another question if it expects that “Obama and Netanyahu will still have good relations for the remainder of Obama's time in office” the answer was a resounding no, and the score – that is, the chance that such scenario is likely – was 1.3 out of 5…
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