Obama and Netanyahu: The last meeting?

A.

The story of the animosity between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Barack Obama is one that we have read – or written about – a thousand times. And while it is tempting to try to reveal a new angle, or put a new spin on the situation, whenever current events make it necessary to write about this duo yet again – for example, when they are slated to meet in Washington – it is not clear whether a new angle is possible. These two leaders do not trust each other, do not like each other, and do not agree with each other. What else is there?

Luckily for the two of them, their era of having to meet is nearly over. In fact, I would not be surprised if the meeting they are having today will be the last one. In 15 months, Obama will no longer be President. That is a long time for a President and an Israeli PM not to have a meeting. But maybe, for once, these two leaders can work together to overcome a tough challenge – the challenge of resisting the urge to have a meeting. Maybe, for once, their interests as human beings, if not necessarily as leaders of two countries, will converge. 

B.

Amid the high personal drama, it is worth remembering that the story of Obama and Netanyahu is not one of two rock-stars disliking each other’s hairdo, or of two TV personalities having an ego problem. Surely, there is the issue of hairdos, and ego, and other small differences of style and culture between the two – but there are also real differences that have far reaching implications. These issues, much more so than the personal disliking, should be the focus of attention. Whether Iran is a historic achievement or a historic mistake, whether Israeli-Palestinian relations are deteriorating because of Palestinian incitement or because of Israeli settlements, whether Obama’s handling of Syria is a sober, restrained, and realistic policy or a show of American weakness that will haunt both the US and Israel for years to come – all these are real debates, and they have real consequences. All these are issues that the President and the PM – even if both have the best of intentions when it comes to amending their ties – cannot resolve. Not because they dislike each other, but because they fundamentally disagree.

C.

One of the most important questions Israel faces today is the one of future American policy. Simplistically put, it is the question “Is it Obama or America?” Namely, can Israel hope, or expect, the pendulum of US policy in the Middle East to shift back rightward when the Obama era is over, or should it learn to live with a new America that is fundamentally changed when it comes to dealing with the region?

There are mixed signs that make both of these possibilities, well, possible. American interests in the region have changed, and the Middle East is becoming less appealing for those who want involvement. On the other hand, the region is also becoming more dangerous. A chaotic situation is a petri dish for the growth of extremism and violence. Also – as we see today with the huge wave of Syrian and other immigration to Europe – it is quite clear that in a global world the idea that a region could be left to face its troubles alone without it having consequences to the rest of the world is absurd.

So what will the next American president do? Most Israeli experts – both in and out of government – assume there will be a recalibration of priorities and beliefs. And of course – that is an option. But not the only option.  

D.

Substance.

Here is what America wants from Netanyahu: no settlement building, no Temple Mount provocation, no Iran disruption.

It is willing to give in return: more aid for defense purposes – but not as much as Israel requested.

Here is what Israel wants from America: more aid than it is willing to give, no singling out Israel as the party responsible for Palestinian violence, serious verification of Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, counterbalancing Putin’s (and Iran’s) intervention in Syria.

It is willing to give in return: (almost) no settlement building, no Temple Mount provocation, no Iran disruption.

It is likely to get: more aid for security. Obama will not commit to all those other things on the list (and even if he does, Netanyahu isn’t likely to take him at his word).