A politician does not say no to endorsements, unless there is clear damage involved. That’s the first rule one has to take into account as one ponders the recent endorsement of Joe Biden by the Jewish lobby J Street. Biden welcomed the endorsement. Some think it is a big deal. But it’s not. It’s a midsize deal at best (or worst, depending on your point of view).
Let’s consider J Street’s options. This will be a short exercise. J Street had no options except supporting Biden, or not supporting anyone. Supporting Biden might give it a chance to brag (“our candidate won”). Not supporting Biden would give the organization nothing. So, this is a no-brainer.
Now consider Biden’s options. He could accept the endorsement (“welcome it”) or reject it.
What would he gain by rejecting it? A lot of negative attention from lefty activists who have a lot of energy to spend on social media. They would cast him as someone undeserving and inauthentic and disrupt his quest to unite the Democratic party, including all of the disappointed Bernie bros. What is the upside of rejecting J Street? It’d give Biden a chance to win over a few pro-Israel Democrats, and convince them that he is as strong on Israel as Donald Trump.
What did Biden get by accepting the endorsement? Praise from the left, and quiet on the activist front. What did he lose? Rightists will portray him as anti-Israel, or not good enough on Israel. In fact, some of them already started doing this (yes, Caroline Glick, I’m looking at you). Also, this will somewhat complicate his relations with AIPAC, whose view of J Street is, well, unflattering would be a mild way of putting it.
Pretend you are Joe Biden, consider these points, and make a decision. I’m willing to bet that for most of you the decision will be quite easy: if you’re Biden, you’d accept the endorsement.
Why?
- Because a rejection is a much more aggressive move than an acceptance. Had he rejected – this would become a big story. Since he accepted, it’s a relatively small one.
- Because for him to get attacks from the right is currently tolerable, while getting attacks from the left is dangerous. Biden is worried about Bernie voters staying at home. He is less worried about pro-Israel Democrats staying at home.
- Because the attacks on him, alleging that he is not as pro-Israel as Trump, will come no matter what he does. Biden was Obama’s Vice President. There is nothing he can do, short of adopting of the Trump peace plan, that would make him seem as close to Israel as the sitting president.
- Because he knows that the vote in November will not be for or against him but rather for or against Trump. Minor issues such as the nuances of the US-Israel alliance will not make a big difference. The Jews – by and large – will vote for him anyhow. And those who don’t are probably a lost cause anyhow.
- Because AIPAC is not going to take this too hard. And Biden will make sure to send the organization a kind of don’t-worry message (in fact, someone who knows someone told me today that a message was already sent).
- Because in Biden’s view, J Street is not that terrible. This does not mean that he is in favor of their every position, but it does mean that for him there is no shocking-factor involved in being seen as an ally of the organization.
