I spent the week in the US, discussing the “triangle” – The US, Israel, and the Jews – at a JPPI brainstorming conference and in several other meetings. Here are a couple of quick thoughts on things that were discussed and their implications:
Iran: accept or fight to the (bitter) end?
Israel is facing a dilemma, and it is not an easy one to unpack. Assuming that a deal with Iran is more likely to occur than not, should Israel accept it as a reality and use the time until the agreement is signed to ask the administration for the things that Israel might want to have after there’s an agreement (weaponry, assurances, understandings)? This question is important because now is a time in which the Obama administration is prepared to offer a lot in exchange for Israel’s good behavior. So the Prime Minister needs to decide what’s more important to him: not giving any hint of Israel’s possible acceptance of a new reality – or getting prepared for the next stage. If he chooses the latter, another great benefit would be an improvement in the relations between the American and the Israeli governments.
US-Israel: what if the deal passes, or fails?
The dilemma is even more profound as we consider it against the two possible outcomes of the Iran negotiations.
They can succeed – namely, there will be an agreement, Israel will fail in stopping it and fail in taking advantage of the time from now until then, and it will then have to face an administration that no longer has much reason to take Israel’s views into account. Different things could happen if such an outcome occurs: it can be nothing much, if the US decides that it is time to turn the page; or it can result in the US putting immense pressure on Israel on the Palestinian issue by letting a Security Council resolution pass.
They can also fail – namely, no agreement. If this happens because of Iranian calculations, that is not bad for Israel, and it can work for the benefit of US-Israel relations (or at least remove one source of great tension). If this happens because of Israel (namely, Congress takes Netanyahu’s side – an unlikely outcome), the Obama administration would go to great lengths to make Israel pay for its actions.
This means two things:
A. Iran alone can save Israel from two unpleasant realities. That is scenario number two (no agreement because of Iran).
B. In two of the three possible scenarios Israel suffers. It either suffers because Iran gets the agreement, or it suffers because of a vengeful American administration.
American Jews: a crisis with Israel?
Important leaders of the American Jewish community use the term “crisis” to describe the relations between Israel and American Jewry. The reasons for this crisis mode are many, and addressing them could be complicated. They include trends within the American community (interfaith marriage) and the impact of Israel’s policies on the way it is perceived in North America (for example, on things such as conversion).
One thing became clear to me in the many discussions in which I participated: Jewish Americans are up in arms over things that most Israelis consider to be insignificant. This is a recipe for misunderstanding and disappointment. In many of these occasions, the Americans are right when it comes to matters of principle – yes, rabbinate policies in Israel are often enraging. In many of these occasions they are wrong when it comes to matters of setting priorities – no, the Israeli government should not currently spend a lot of political capital on solving something that has little impact on the lives of most Israelis.
I intend to write more about this in the near future. In the meantime, all I can offer is a plea for calm.
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