Political, diplomatic uncertainty underlie snipe

What lies beneath “chickenshit”?

The coarseness of the epithet for cowardice used by an anonymous Obama administration official to describe Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seized the attention of Jerusalem and Washington. The snipe, reported by The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg, is seen by analysts as emblematic of deteriorating Obama-Netanyahu relations at a time of great political and diplomatic uncertainty.

Top officials in the Israeli and U.S. governments are bracing themselves for possible radical changes within the next months in how the world relates to Iran and how the Palestinians pursue their quest for independence, as well as for increased turbulence in Jerusalem and the prospect of political change in Washington.

The latest scuffle comes as U.S. officials are expressing greater optimism about the likelihood of a nuclear deal with Iran and Israelis fret that the parameters of the deal could leave Iran on the verge of becoming a nuclear power.

“The bottom line is that Benjamin Netanyahu sees the potential for even a modified, defanged nuclear program as an existential threat to Israel,” said Jonathan Schanzer, the vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank that consults closely with Congress on Iran policy. “President Obama views a deal with Iran as perhaps one of the only remaining opportunities for a foreign policy legacy.”

Schanzer added, “To analyze this flap without understanding the centrality of Iran ignores the majority of what is fueling this conflict.”

As negotiations appear to be entering their final stages ahead of a Nov. 24 deadline, it remains to be seen how much each side will give and take, and the factor of the unknown is fueling Israeli anxieties. The U.S. national security adviser, Susan Rice, last week pledged to continue “unprecedented coordination” with Israel on Iran policy after meeting with her Israeli counterpart, Yossi Cohen.

Aaron David Miller, vice president of new initiatives at the Wilson Center, a foreign-affairs think tank, noted that the comments came in advance of the midterm elections. (Polls were still open as of press time for this edition of the Journal.) 

“The time to deal with this is after the midterm elections, after we see where Iran-nuclear is going,” Miller said.

Complicating matters is lack of clarity over factors that so far have been beyond the control of the United States or Israel, among them increased tensions in Jerusalem between Jews and Arabs. The strains came to a head last week with the assassination attempt on a leader of the movement to establish a Jewish presence on the Temple Mount and the killing of his purported attacker during a raid by Israeli forces.

“You could end up with a major crisis in Jerusalem,” Miller said.

In recent weeks, Obama administration officials have intensified their calls on Netanyahu to roll back planned building in the eastern part of the city. On Nov. 3, however, a Jerusalem planning committee approved construction of hundreds of apartments in a Jewish neighborhood of Eastern Jerusalem.

Another factor contributing to the uncertainty is the Palestinians’ revival of their bid to achieve statehood recognition through the United Nations Security Council. Israel fears statehood recognition not simply because it robs it of leverage in peace talks, but also because it would grant the Palestinians status to seek war-crimes charges against Israeli officials in the international court system.

There’s no formal statehood recognition bid yet, but a Jordanian resolution condemning Israel’s settlement policies is now circulating. In 2011, the U.S. vetoed a similar resolution.