Why Israel Still Doesn’t Have A Government

If you haven’t notice and you’d be forgiven if you hadn’t), Israel still doesn’t have a government. Two weeks ago it seemed clear that a unity coalition is about to be formed. A week ago we realized that this is taking too long. And now – we’re no longer sure what’s happening. Benny Gantz’ mandate to form a government is over on Monday. Benjamin Netanyahu will get it. And as for unity, some observers believe that Netanyahu still wants it, and just make sure to squeeze another drop from the Blue and White lemon before he completes the round of negotiations – while others begin to suspect that Netanyahu’s goal is different: a right-religious coalition, or a fourth election.

Gantz’ Mandate

Today (Sunday) the president informed Gantz that he cannot get more time to try and form a coalition. I am not sure what Gantz was thinking when he asked to get more time. He was handed the mandate when his bloc had 61 members. He now has less than 20 members in a bloc that includes his faction of Blue and White and two members of Labor. In the meantime, Netanyahu’s bloc got stronger, when a former member of Labor-Meretz (Orly Levi Abekasis) decided to formally join into the bloc of 59.

Netanyahu’s options

59 is plenty but not enough. What can Netanyahu do with it? He can still form the unity government with Gantz. Or he can try to find 2 Members of Knesset with which to form a 61 member coalition. Maybe the two members of Labor that already agreed to join the coalition. Or two members of Blue and White for which jumping ship is an option. A third option for Netanyahu is to run the clock and force a fourth election. 

Fourth election?

One look at the polls clarifies why Netanyahu might toy with such idea, or at least keep it as an option to put pressure on all potential partners. Since the last election we’ve seen a string of polls that put the Likud party above 40 seats and the right-religious camp above 60 seats. All Netanyahu has to do is convince the voters that the fourth round wasn’t his fault but rather Gantz`, and (even better) make sure that no viable rival emerges within the 90 days until the date for a new election. With Blue and White becoming a shadow of its former self, Labor on the ropes, and no other party in sight – Israeli voters will have few realistic options other than Likud. 

Unity coalition

It is still too early to conclude that Netanyahu does not want a unity coalition. He might be still looking at his options and trying to get the best terms for himself and his party before the deed is done. What’s on the table? That depends on Netanyahu’s appetite and on Gantz’ state of desperation. But realistically speaking, Netanyahu can go back on a few promises and maybe get away with it. One example concerns the appointment of justices, another one the terms that guarantee a rotation at the PM’s office after a year and a half (no sane Israeli believe that Netanyahu intends to let Gantz be the PM). 

Gantz’ options

Blue and White is no longer a viable alternative to Likud. Gantz can find a way to join the coalition, he can have a fight with Netanyahu and stay in the opposition (having proved that he was doomed by Netanyahu), and he can quit and let someone else make an attempt to revive Blue and White. These are not great options for an ambitious man who not long ago truly believed that he could be Prime Minister. In essence, his future depends more on Netanyahu’s calculations that on his own wishes. The only card he holds is based on the assumption that for the PM it is still better to have a relatively comfortable unity coalition with him than make the cynical attempt to form a narrow coalition. This is probably still a solid assumption, but only in case some of Netanyahu’s terms are met.