While the Jews of America are still digesting the meaning of Trump, the Jews (and non-Jews) of Israel are back to business as usual, battling over the fate of a small settlement, Amona, but really about the rule of law and legislative power and settler influence. Amona is not very important in and of itself – it is a test case. The settlers believe that if Amona falls, other settlements will also fall. The High Court – ruling yesterday that Amona must be evacuated before the end of the year – believes that an Israeli government must do what it has to do. The government is split – some of its heads, including the prime minister, would like to compromise in a way that can satisfy the court; others, notably the ministers of the Jewish Home Party, are using Amona as a political wedge issue to bolster their hawkish credentials.
The story of Amona is simple: it was built, as the court ruled, on private land owned by Palestinians. It was an illegal act – not intentionally illegal, but that doesn’t matter – that has to be corrected. The legal case was settled long ago, but the political situation is tough. Israel’s coalition relies on parties and members whose ideological and political fortune is tied to the settler movement. Thus, the government is reluctant to clash with the settlers of Amona and their supporters. Time and again it requested to delay evacuation using different excuses. Yesterday, the court decided to say no more. “we have been asked at the last minute to extend the date of an evacuation that was set by judgment… It appears that any time limit given, generous as it may be, is not enough. We must be careful not to allow deadlines set in rulings to become recommendations.”
This decision by the court plays into the hands of the prime minister. He wants to evacuate Amona, but also want someone else to take the blame for it, and the court is a convenient lightening rod. Alas, some of Netanyahu’s allies will not let him off the hook that easily. In recent weeks and days, they were angling to pass new legislation that would legalize Amona and other places in which the same problem exists. The Attorney General warned that the proposed legislation is unconstitutional and will not stand. Yet the proponents of the law did not budge. Earlier this week, Education Minister Naftali Bennet of the Jewish Home Party overcame the resistance of the PM and convinced the government to approve a so called “regulation law.” Bennet’s move was politically cunning, a clear win for him: he made both Netanyahu and the court take the blame for the destruction of Amona – if Israel ends up destroying it. He made himself the sole champion of saving Amona – if the place is ultimately saved.
Amona will be an interesting and worrying test for the Netanyahu government. A deadline is set: December 25. Legislation is moving forward – but it is not clear that the Knesset is going to vote for it – and if it does, the court can still strike it down (but maybe not by the 25th of December). Preparation for the evacuation must also move forward. The settlers, surely, are already preparing to wage a fight. Some of their leaders warn that there’s potential for violence and even bloodshed. In the background there is US condemnation of the legislative move, and settler expectation of change when a new administration settles in. In fact, one of the main reason for the settlers’ wish of postponement is their belief that once a Trump administration settles in, the US demand for an evacuation will vanish, and with it Netanyahu’s chief argument as to why Israel cannot afford a further delay.
What is the way forward for Amona? There are at least four scenarios:
1. Legislation does not pass, Amona is evacuated amid some resistance, and the story is over (until another settlement is placed under the same legal microscope).
2. Legislation passes, and the court is asked to review the new law. In such case, the court could strike down the law before the 25th of December and demand evacuation; it could delay evacuation and strike it down after the 25th of December – and then set a new deadline for evacuation; or it could leave the law intact and let the government deal with the consequences – diplomatic downfall, international pressure, etc.
3. Legislation passes and the court is not even asked to review it. Former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is trying to convince all opposition forces to refrain from going to court and let the government deal with this hot potato of problematic legislation without having the court to blame for the consequences. I find her proposal worthy of consideration, but find it hard to believe that no organization will appeal.
4. Legislation passes with a caveat: Amona will be evacuated and the new law will apply only to future cases (if not strike down by the court). The settlers currently seem unwilling to consider such compromise (and for good reason: it does not have good chance of withstanding legal scrutiny).
What is the best scenario for Israel? When it comes to the future of settlements, the answer to this question depends on one’s ideology. When it comes to the future of the rule of law, and of the government’s ability to implement its policies, there’s no doubt that option 1 is better than the others.
Ignoring the politics of it all – it should be easy for the Prime Minister to make sure that option 1 is implemented. He can stop the legislation by using a simple technically. He can tell the military and the police to evacuate. He can warn the settlers that any violence against soldiers will be treated harshly.
Ignoring the politics of it all is a missing piece in this government’s toolbox. Netanyahu is having a hard time evacuating Amona for the same reason he has a hard time implementing the Western Wall compromise: he does not see these issues as worthy enough of the political price he would have to pay for them – and one wonders if any issue seems worthy enough to this Prime Minister if he needs to pay a political price to have it resolved.
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