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November 7, 2013

Law and Values Demand Punitive Measures Against Egyptian Regime: A Conversation with Senator Levin

My meeting with Senator Carl Levin – a Michigan Democrat, Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, to retire at the end of this term – was mentioned in yesterday’s post about the Iran sanctions. So you already know that the senator, “skeptical” as he may be about the talks, supports a two-month halt in congressional action on Iran. Testing Iran’s true intentions is the “responsible thing to do”, the senator says. He supports it, and so does the Israeli government. The fact that “every statement” from US officials on Iran contains skeptical ingredients is a testimony to how no one is deluding himself into believing that an agreement is a sure thing. Levin doesn’t see much difference between the opinions of the many people absorbed by the Iran issue– the main difference is where in the statements the skeptical reference appears.

He doesn’t want to say in advance what the US should do if the talks with Iran fail to achieve their goal. It's better, he says, “to take it one step at a time” and “not to speculate” on what will happen after that. One might find a clue to his view on Iran in what he says about Syria, where recent events have proved that “the threat of force has impact”. Levin believes that the Obama administration deserves “more credit” for the success in Syria and doesn’t see the current state of affairs as a chemicals-go-Assad-stays deal. “Assad should go”, he says – that’s both his and the administration’s public position.

The delay in providing support to the rebels in Syria seems to annoy him a little. But he can see why it happened: because the US military believed that the arms shouldn’t be delivered to rebels who are not fully vetted. But Levin has by now reached “a level of confidence” that the US can adequately identify those opposition forces that merit support.

We also talked about Egypt, where US support is shaky and Israeli apprehension about US policy is noticeable. Senators that are usually attentive to Israeli concerns – such as Levin, but also Republicans like John McCain and Lindsey Graham – weren’t convinced by Israeli claims that an American insistence on punishing the Egyptian government would not be a good idea. Israeli officials are worried- as are some US legislators- when they see the Egyptian Foreign Minister suggesting to look “beyond the US for arms”. Levin is not as impressed. “We can’t ignore our law”, he says, referring to the law (which he quotes from memory) that forbids assistance to regimes that came to power by a coup against democratically elected governments. “It was a coup”, he says – even though the Obama administration was careful not to officially designate the events in Egypt as a coup.

John Kerry’s visit to Egypt last week, and his stated commitment “to work with” the Egyptian government – the Americans insist on calling it an “interim” government – “signals that we intend to keep the relations with the government”. Yet the law is the law, and it should be followed – aid should be cut – because this law “reflects a value”. It is important to Levin to “send a signal” to Egypt that it should keep its eye on the ball – moving back to democracy.

Law and Values Demand Punitive Measures Against Egyptian Regime: A Conversation with Senator Levin Read More »

November 7, 2013

The US

Headline: Grappling with troubled peace process, Kerry urges Israeli settlement limits

To Read: Jeffrey Goldberg talks to Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel about Israel and Palestine-

Hagel, like much of Washington’s foreign policy elite, still seems enamored of the idea that reaching a final agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians would help solve many of the Middle East’s other problems. I wasn’t that surprised, in fact, that he listed this item first in his description of America’s strategic challenges. Hagel is partial to a theory, known in shorthand as “linkage,” that is no longer operative in reality. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is irrelevant to the great earthquakes of recent Middle East history: the revolutions of the Arab Spring, and the nascent civil war between Shiite and Sunni Muslims. But it is still an article of faith among very smart people that a peace treaty would lead to broad tranquility.

Quote: 'it is up to Saudi Arabia to make its own decisions about its own social structure and choices and the timing of whatever events”, John Kerry avoiding a question about women not being allowed to drive in Saudi Arabia (Elliot Abrams doesn't approve).

Number: 56, the percentage of Americans who believe that monitoring allied leaders' calls is unacceptable.

 

Israel

Headline: Report: Fewer rockets on Israeli soil since operation Pillar of Defense

To Read: Ben Birenbaum doesn't think that Avigdor Lieberman's return to Israeli politics is as dramatically disasterous as it seems to most Israeli liberals-

Left-wing figures were apoplectic about the verdict, with Labor Party leader Shelly Yacimovich calling for an appeal. But the verdict could very well prove a blessing in disguise. Better that Lieberman—and what he stands for—be defeated at the ballot box than in the legal system.

Quote: “I congratulate you on your unanimous acquittal and am glad you are returning to the Government of Israel so we can continue to work together for the good of the people of Israel”, Benjamin Netanyahu congratulating Lieberman, who is reportedly going to be sworn in as FM as early as next week.

Number: 56, in 2008 there were 3,716 launches of rockets and mortar shells into Israel, 56 times more than this year.

 

The Middle East

Headline: Yasser Arafat 'may have been poisoned with polonium'

To Read: FP's David Kenner takes a look at the Saudis' shadow war in Syria-

While the risk of blowback has been discussed in Riyadh, Saudis with knowledge of the training program describe it as an antidote to extremism, not a potential cause of it. They have described the kingdom's effort as having two goals — toppling the Assad regime, and weakening al Qaeda-linked groups in the country. Prince Turki, the former Saudi intelligence chief and envoy to Washington, said in a recent interview that the mainstream opposition must be strengthened so that it could protect itself “these extremists who are coming from all over the place” to impose their own ideologies on Syria.

Quote: “they use religion or abuse religion in order to justify it”, Iranian Nobel Peace laureate Shirin Ebadi publicly criticizing the Human track record of Iranian President Rouhani.

Number: 9, only 9% of Iranians think that Israel is responsible for the sanctions their country is facing.

 

The Jewish World

Headline: Goverment seeks ‘paradigm shift’ in Israel-Diaspora relations

To Read: Jonathan Sarna writes about a growing tendency towards exclusion among orthodox Jews-

Nowadays, though, the Orthodox community feels increasingly secure. Recent studies, including the New York Jewish Population Survey and the Pew Research Center study, indicate that its numbers and influence are rising. In more right-wing corners of the movement, which are growing the fastest, triumphalism reigns supreme.

This mood is a natural breeding ground for those seeking to create a purer, holier and more exclusive Orthodox community, one that will adhere more punctiliously to “Orthodox laws, customs and traditions.” Indeed, the RCA itself has recently fallen victim to this trend. Hamodia: The daily newspaper of Torah Jewry, ran an editorial last June, titled “The Hypocrisy of the RCA.” To those who listen closely, indeed, there are growing indications that the Orthodox “big tent” is straining, as religious policemen at home and abroad push for ever more exclusive definitions of who belongs within the Orthodox fold and who should be excluded.

Quote:  “My children say that they feel like Jewish families in Germany under Hitler’s regime. Truly, everyone is against us”, former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi making an interesting analogy to describe his family's unpopularity.

Number: 14, the number of sections in the Maimonides' masterwork Mishneh Torah.

November 7, 2013 Read More »

Could mass shootings in America be prevented by Israel-style profiling?

With each horrific mass shooting that devastates another town in America, we are presented with a flood of news stories and think pieces, reflecting on how this could have happened — again. And how, they ask, can we stop the deadly cycle: Gun control? Mental health care? Community togetherness?

At least two Israeli security experts, both of whom formerly patrolled Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport and now work as security consultants in the U.S., said the key point of intervention may lie in the moments leading up to the crime.

On the heels of “>New Jersey mall attack this week, Israeli-born Rafi Ron, speaking to “>PBS, and Michael Rozin, speaking to the Jewish Journal, said this type of attack could possibly be prevented using Israel-style security measures, which take a more intensive and personalized approach to spotting potential attackers in public spaces.

The Israeli method is based on suspect profiling — an especially touchy subject among civil-liberty advocates in the U.S.

The TSA is already one of the most hated governmental agencies in America, for the hands-on security measures it does impose. Tellingly, LAPD Chief Charlie Beck, in defense of his officers' failure to catch 23-year-old suspect Paul Ciancia before the young man allegedly started shooting up LAX last Friday, “>Rozin Security Consulting, a Minneapolis-based risk management and security services firm. In a phone interview, Rozin told me that, generally speaking, security training in the U.S. puts a bigger emphasis on identifying a weapon and reacting to an attack, as opposed to identifying malicious intent and preventing the attack before it occurs.

There are two factors that lead to an act of public violence, said Rozin: 1) a weapon and 2) intent.

“We focus on intent,” he said. “In Israel, we don’t ignore the weapon — of course we have measures to [screen for weapons] — but we put more focus on identifying malicious intent. In the U.S., a lot of the strategy is to wait for something to happen and then respond. The focus is on identifying a weapon. If you pass the metal detector, you must be good. While we do use metal detectors [in Israel], they're only secondary. People are looking you in your eyes and watching your behavior. That’s the element that’s missing.”

From personal experience, entering Ben Gurion Airport is like being sucked into a sterile security vacuum: I feel I'm being watched and studied from every angle before I even reach the front door. And once inside, if I even look at the flight board funny, a uniformed official will come up and start asking questions. How long have you been here? Why did you come here? Where are you going? The same one-on-one questioning is repeated in a security line that passengers must walk through before they even reach the carry-on and suitcase screening area. And once security officers see the Gaza stamp in my passport, I'm in for another 20 minutes of hard interrogation. These guys can smell the tiniest white lie from clear across the airport — it's insane.

Ron, former head of security at Ben Gurion, told “>being pulled into windowless rooms for seven hours, treated as terrorists and kicked out of the country.

But what Ron and Rozin are talking about goes beyond racial profiling. (And really, if U.S. security guards wanted to profile mass shooters on race alone, all they'd have to do is watch out for white, male 20somethings with Jack Torrance glares.)

As Ron explained to “>Telegraph reported at the time.

I also asked Rozin about the differences between spotting a more traditional “terrorist,” by Western definition, and an active shooter.

He answered: “When you’re talking about sophisticated terrorist groups, their implementation phase is larger and longer. There is a lot of effort studying the targets… and they're better at concealing suspicious actions.” However, he added that “while [terrorists and shooters] are different, with different weapons and different ideologies, the bottom line is, it doesn’t really matter in the moment. They have a weapon and they intend to use it to cause harm.”

Atlantic columnist Jeffrey Goldberg nailed it in 2010 Could mass shootings in America be prevented by Israel-style profiling? Read More »