Netanyahu, Head of the Opposition?

After twelve years in power, Netanyahu as head of the opposition is now a possibility. In fact, it is a likelihood more than a possibility. Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu has two weeks to form a coalition before his mandate expires, and his options are: let someone else from within his own camp be the prime minister, or become the head of the opposition. Forming a coalition and a government no longer seems a realistic option.

Can you believe it? You’d have to get used to it, but for Netanyahu this will be his third time as head of the opposition. He was there when Prime Ministers Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres ran the country in the early nineties. He was there when Prime Minister Ehud Olmert ran the country until 2009. He might have to readjust to this position, this time while standing trial.

For Netanyahu this will be his third time as head of the opposition.

How did this happen? The election forced Netanyahu to find more partners than his usual camp of supporters. He needed to recruit Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party — when Bennett was running to replace him. He needed to retain the support of the hawkish Religious Zionist party. And he needed Islamist Raam to get to more than 60 seats. The short story is that the Religious Zionist party refused to sit with Raam. Netanyahu tried to lure the New Hope party in as substitute, but this also failed. He then floated a new idea: a quick special election only for the job of prime minister. But on Monday, Netanyahu’s bloc was ambushed by the “camp of change” and lost control of forming Knesset committees. Raam closed a deal with opposition leader Yair Lapid and voted against Netanyahu.

That was a final reality check. Netanyahu does not have a majority and is unlikely to have one in the next two weeks. If he does nothing, the other camp will get a shot at forming an uneasy coalition of rivals. Hawkish Bennett and Gideon Saar, centrist Yair Lapid and Avigdor Lieberman, leftist Labor and Meretz and, finally, Islamist Raam. This will be a narrow coalition and one that is ideologically incoherent. Its goal would be to unseat Netanyahu and focus on uncontroversial policies. It might be formed or it might not; it might survive for more than a few months or it might not. Bennett would likely start as the prime minister, followed by Lapid after two years, if the coalition doesn’t collapse under its own weight. Netanyahu is going to blast it daily, calling it a left-wing coalition, denigrating it as illegitimate (Bennett, with seven seats, as the prime minister? It’s not illegitimate, but it is slightly weird).

Netanyahu’s other option is to hand someone else in Likud the key to forming a coalition. But he is smart enough to know that this key will not be easily returned. He is also smart enough to know that being the leader of the opposition is not as powerful a position as being the prime minister. If a Bennett-Lapid government survives for more than a few months, the grumble of Likud members could lead to revolt against him.

Then again, his cards are few and weak. For now, he will prepare for the following scenarios:

Best case (for him): The other coalition also doesn’t form, and Israel goes to a fifth election.

Second best: A coalition forms but collapses after a short time, when Netanyahu still controls Likud.

Third option: Netanyahu is the head of the opposition and has to fight against his rivals’ government, the prosecutors at the court and a revolt within Likud.